Can the Openpay (ASX:OPY) share price double in value?

The Openpay Group Ltd (ASX:OPY) share price could double in value from here according to one leading broker. Here's why…

| More on:
asx share price increase represented by golden dollar sign rocketing out from white domes of lithium

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Like many tech shares, it hasn't been a great week for the Openpay Group Ltd (ASX: OPY) share price.

As things stand, the buy now pay later (BNPL) provider's shares are on course to record a weekly decline of 6%.

This will mean the Openpay share price has lost 18% of its value since this time last month.

Is the weakness in the Openpay share price a buying opportunity for investors?

One broker that appears to believe this weakness is a buying opportunity is Shaw and Partners.

According to a recent note, the broker has a retained its buy (high risk) rating but cut its price target on the company's shares to $4.00.

Based on the latest Openpay share price of $1.93, this price target implies potential upside of over 100%.

What did Shaw & Partners say?

Shaw and Partners was pleased with Openpay's performance in the third quarter.

It commented: "OPY's very positive – and accelerating – momentum has continued (very strong 1Q21, 2Q21 and 3Q21 results) with all growth metrics trending in the right direction (number of plans, number of customers, number of merchants, net bad debt, TTV) – all of which translate into solid revenue. Buy retained."

And while it acknowledges that its bad debts as a percentage of transaction value increased beyond its target rate of 2.5%, it notes that management expects this metric to return to target levels in the short term.

Why is the broker bullish?

There are a number of reasons that Shaw and Partners is bullish on the Openpay share price. One of those is its massive market opportunity.

It explained: "Total Addressable Market (TAM) for BNPL globally is >US$6.5t (comprising US$5.5t, UK $0.63t, Australia US$0.32t and NZ US$0.1t) and OPY's share of this US wallet is estimated at c. 15%, equating to a mammoth US$829b target market in the US alone."

"A "back-of-the-envelope" sensitivity by Shaw and Partners with respect to the potential revenue impact of US penetration (market share vs. gross revenue yield) highlights that this significant scale, opportunity and revenue runway, based on relatively conservative assumptions, could potentially yield a quantum leap in revenue generation," it added.

In addition to this, the broker believes its shares offer significant value for money in comparison to rivals Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) and Zip Co Ltd (ASX: Z1P).

It notes that the Openpay share price is currently trading at a 35% discount to its BNPL peers on an FY 2021 EV/Sales multiple of 9.3x vs. combined 14.2x.

Overall, this could make it worth considering if you're looking for exposure to the BNPL sector.

James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of ZIPCOLTD FPO. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Broker Notes

Contented looking man leans back in his chair at his desk and smiles.
Broker Notes

Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's why brokers are feeling bullish about these three shares this week.

Read more »

A business person directs a pointed finger upwards on a rising arrow on a bar graph.
Broker Notes

Top broker forecasts another 83% upside for this outperforming ASX All Ords tech stock

A leading broker expects outsized gains from this ASX All Ords tech stock in 2026. But why?

Read more »

Ecstatic woman looking at her phone outside with her fist pumped.
Broker Notes

Morgans names 2 ASX shares to buy now

The broker has good things to say about these shares.

Read more »

Woman leaping in the air and standing out from her friends who are watching.
Broker Notes

5 ASX 200 shares forecast to soar 100% (or more) in 2026

Are any of these in your portfolio already?

Read more »

A little boy in flying goggles and wings rides high on his mum's back with blue skies above.
Broker Notes

Bell Potter says this ASX 200 stock could rise 50%+

The broker thinks big returns could be on offer with this name.

Read more »

Woman with gold nuggets on her hand.
Broker Notes

Why this surging ASX 300 gold stock is forecast to keep on giving

A leading broker forecasts more outperformance from this rocketing ASX gold stock.

Read more »

Business people discussing project on digital tablet.
Broker Notes

Buy, hold, sell: Credit Corp, PLS, and ResMed shares

Let's see what Morgans is saying about these shares this week.

Read more »

Man drawing an upward line on a bar graph symbolising a rising share price.
Broker Notes

Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's what brokers are recommending as buys this week.

Read more »