Where will ASX 200 bank shares end up in 2020?

ASX 200 bank shares like Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) could be in the buy zone despite flagging dividend and earnings cuts.

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ASX 200 bank shares climbed higher on Tuesday and kickstarted the week for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

The benchmark index closed 1.87% higher, which was roughly in line with the Aussie banks. 

Amongst the gainers was Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) shares outperformed, closing 1.94% higher at $16.27 per share.

That's despite the Aussie bank announcing an expected $900 million AUSTRAC penalty as well as a $1.5 billion loss in FY 2020.

The major banks, bar Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), are set to report their earnings in late April or early May. 

So, with so much happening this year, where will ASX bank shares finish in 2020?

a woman

Where will ASX bank shares finish in 2020?

We've already seen Aussie bank shares come under pressure in the early months of 2020.

In fact, both the National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) and Westpac share prices are both down 32.7% in 2020.

The coronavirus pandemic has put pressure on a number of businesses and that's starting to hit the banks.

APRA has pressured boards to slash dividends amidst the pandemic. The decision has put ASX bank shares under pressure as the regulator looks to ensure solvency and maintain liquidity.

On top of that, the banks are being asked to pitch in and help in the pandemic. That includes a number of measures covering credit card debt, home loans and commercial lending.

All of this, on top of the impact that COVID-19 could have on the bank's own operations.

We could see more asset impairments and defaults given the impact that the pandemic has had on Aussie businesses.

However, I still think the ASX bank shares are still in the buy zone right now.

If you're a buy-and-hold investor, one missed dividend shouldn't matter too much. That's particularly the case when it's an interim dividend – with another payment scheduled for later in the year.

That could put the Aussie banks in the buy zone, despite the current bear market.

I particularly like Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) given its diversified earnings streams and international investment exposure, which could rebound in the second half of the year.

Motley Fool contributor Ken Hall has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Macquarie Group Limited. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of National Australia Bank Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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