Own Macquarie shares? Here's what to expect from its FY24 results this week

A sharp cash earnings decline is expected in FY 2024. But what about FY 2025?

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It could be a big week for Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) shares and shareholders.

That's because the investment bank will be releasing its FY 2024 results before the market open on Friday.

Ahead of the release, let's now take a look and see what the market is expecting from the results.

Macquarie results preview

Firstly, it is worth noting that Macquarie has been guiding to a result "substantially" lower than in FY 2023 all year. So, don't be alarmed by some of these numbers.

According to a note out of Goldman Sachs, its analysts are expecting Macquarie to report cash earnings of $3,481 million. This will be down a sizeable 32% on last year's numbers.

The market is feeling a tiny bit more optimistic and is forecasting cash earnings of $3,512 million for the 12 months.

Unsurprisingly, this is expected to weigh on the company's dividends in FY 2024. Goldman has pencilled in a final dividend of $3.70 per share, which would bring its full-year dividends to $6.25 per share.

This represents a 16.7% reduction on the prior corresponding period and equates to a dividend yield of approximately 3.3% based on where Macquarie shares currently trade.

However, this time around, the market is feeling less positive than Goldman. The consensus estimate is for a final dividend of $3.50 per share.

What else should you look out for?

Macquarie likes to keep its shareholders informed and will probably provide the market with guidance for FY 2025.

Goldman notes that the consensus estimate is for net profit after tax growth of 25% in FY 2025. As a result, the broker will be looking for commentary to suggest that this is possible. It explains:

For FY25, we see the key macro uncertainties as i) how the business will perform in a higher-for-longer rate environment, and ii) how quickly an inflection in interest rates would translate into an improvement in MQG's operational performance. We expect MQG will introduce FY25 guidance at its FY24 result, and we will be keen to see the extent to which this guidance justifies the 25% NPAT growth currently forecast by Visible Alpha Consensus Data.

Its analysts are currently forecasting cash earnings growth of approximately 19% in FY 2025.

Should you buy Macquarie shares?

Goldman is currently sitting on the fence with this one and has put a neutral rating and $186.38 price target on its shares.

This is just a touch below where Macquarie shares are trading this afternoon. Though, that recommendation and valuation could change after Friday's results.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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