Is the Qantas share price overvalued right now?

The Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) share price could come under pressure from its $2.5 billion frequent flyer liability in FY 2020.

| More on:
a woman

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) share price has been performing strongly in 2019.

The group's shares are up 23.96% to $7.14 per share and have marginally outperformed the S&P/ASX 200 Index (INDEXASX: XJO).

However, the group could be facing a significant liability from its frequent flyer program according to an article published in the Australian Financial Review (AFR) last Friday.

The AFR article suggested that Qantas is looking at $2.5 billion of unredeemed frequent flyer points in FY19. That's more than the income from its Loyalty business segment by about 50% and roughly 13.7% of total revenue.

These points could be a hidden liability distorting Qantas' true valuation, and the Qantas share price did edge lower on Friday.

But Qantas isn't the only one facing questions about these hidden loyalty program liabilities.

Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (ASX: VAH) is reportedly facing a $500 million liability, or 8.5% of total group revenue.

That's about 20% higher than its own loyalty segment's revenue, says the AFR.

However, it's not all doom and gloom for shareholders in the nation's major airlines. Fund managers seem unfazed by the liabilities and believe they are an important part of the airlines' operational and earnings expansion.

How have the airlines performed in 2019?

The Qantas share price is up 23.96% this year, while Virgin shares have struggled to climb higher.

Virgin shares are down 15.79% since the start of January, largely due to weak earnings. The airline has looked to strengthen its relationship with Virgin Atlantic and expand its international flight network.

The recent AFR article could raise some questions about both airlines' current valuations. This combined with rising oil prices could see their share prices under pressure early this week.

Foolish takeaway

Both of these Aussie airlines lean heavily on their loyalty programs to generate revenue. That means the unclaimed rewards could be seen as having asset-like qualities in terms of driving future earnings.

However, the need to provide services for these points could cause some headaches if they continue to grow in FY20.

The Qantas and Virgin share prices are worth watching in December to see how investors feel about it all. 

Motley Fool contributor Kenneth Hall has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Share Fallers

A young man clasps his hand to his head with his eyes closed and a pained expression on his face as he clasps a laptop computer in front of him, seemingly learning of bad news or a poor investment.
Share Fallers

Why Chalice Mining, Cleanaway, Kogan, and Perpetual shares are sinking today

These ASX shares are having a tough time on Wednesday. But why?

Read more »

man grimaces next to falling stock graph
Share Fallers

Why did this ASX 100 stock just crash 11%?

Cleanaway shares have been on a crazy roller-coaster over the past 24 hours.

Read more »

A woman with a sad face looks to be receiving bad news on her phone as she holds it in her hands and looks down at it.
Share Fallers

Why Brambles, Lifestyle Communities, Northern Star, and Select Harvests shares are sinking

These shares are having a tough session. But why?

Read more »

A man sits in despair at his computer with his hands either side of his head, staring into the screen with a pained and anguished look on his face, in a home office setting.
Share Fallers

Why Cettire, DroneShield, St Barbara, and Star shares are dropping today

These ASX shares are having a tough time on Monday. But why?

Read more »

Woman in dress sitting in chair looking depressed
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Cettire share price plunges 6% after major investor pulls the plug

A 'red flag' triggered this investment company to sell out completely.

Read more »

A skydiving man in a jester hat and carrying a burger and sauce, pokes out his tongue at the camera, indicating all is not lost when you're falling.
Technology Shares

Why is the Droneshield share price crashing 19% on Monday?

Investors are sending shares in Droneshield down 19% in morning trade.

Read more »

A male investor wearing a blue shirt looks off to the side with a miffed look on his face as the share price declines.
Share Fallers

Why COG, Karoon Energy, Netwealth, and Pilbara Minerals shares are dropping today

These ASX shares are ending the week deep in the red. But why?

Read more »

A woman with a sad face looks to be receiving bad news on her phone as she holds it in her hands and looks down at it.
Share Fallers

Why Evolution Mining, Karoon Energy, ResMed, and Sayona Mining shares are dropping today

These ASX shares are having a tough session. But why?

Read more »