When global shares drop, are ASX banks like CBA safe or risky?

Global shares are falling, are ASX banks like Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) risky or safe?

a woman

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Global shares are dropping across various markets.

iShares S&P 500 ETF (ASX: IVV) is down another 1% in early trading and Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF (ASX: VGS) is down 0.75%.

It's easy to see how a slowdown in the global economy could affect many global shares and indeed some local shares too like BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC).

But what about ASX banks like Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ASX: ANZ) and National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB)?

A large majority of the earnings from our large ASX banks come from Australia (and New Zealand), it doesn't directly rely on the global economy. People need to keep paying their mortgage whether global trade is rising, flat or declining a little.

In terms of the banks' net interest income, I think banks are relatively safe in the short-term.

But, there is a longer-term risk to the banks if a short-term share market drop turns into a global economic decline. Australia's economy is quite strongly linked to the strength of the global economy so indirectly it could eventually cause some Aussies to see a loss of income which could mean banks not receiving borrower mortgage payments.

Borrowers will prioritise paying their mortgage more than anything else, so even in a downturn mortgage payments will keep flowing to the banks – but earning a 2% net interest margin doesn't amount to much if you're writing off 100% of a bad loan.

All of the major banks are down more than 1.25% this morning, the ANZ share price is down around 2%.

Foolish takeaway

Commonwealth Bank shares have dropped 4% since the pre-open price on Tuesday. The CBA share price is still up compared to where it was just a month ago – so it doesn't strike me as a bargain buy today, although a few more days of declines may make it more attractive.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of National Australia Bank Limited and WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Bank Shares

A woman wearing a yellow shirt smiles as she checks her phone.
Bank Shares

$5,000 in CBA shares at the start of 2025 is now worth…

Has Australia's largest bank delivered the goods for investors this year?

Read more »

Construction worker in hard hat pumps fist in front of high-rise buildings.
Resources Shares

Why this fundie is backing ASX mining shares over banks in 2026

Wilson Asset Management lead portfolio manager Matthew Haupt explains his views.

Read more »

Higher interest rates written on a yellow sign.
Broker Notes

How will interest rate hikes impact the big four ASX banks like CBA shares?

If the RBA hikes interest rates in 2026, what will that mean for ANZ, Westpac, NAB, and CBA shares?

Read more »

Bank building in a financial district.
Bank Shares

Why is everyone talking about NAB shares on Friday?

NAB shares are grabbing ASX investor interest today. But why?

Read more »

Happy young woman saving money in a piggy bank.
Bank Shares

Down 20% since November, are Bendigo Bank shares now a buy?

A leading investment expert delivers his outlook for Bendigo Bank shares.

Read more »

Woman holding $50 and $20 notes.
Bank Shares

$5,000 invested in Westpac shares at the start of 2025 is now worth….

The big 4 bank's shares have tumbled over the past month.

Read more »

Woman with money on the table and looking upwards.
Bank Shares

The CBA share price has fallen 19% since June, is it a buy?

Is this the right time to invest in the bank?

Read more »

Three small children reach up to hold a toy rocket high above their heads in a green field with a blue sky above them.
Bank Shares

Up 22% in a year! The red-hot ANZ share price is smashing CBA, Westpac and NAB shares

Why has the ANZ share price risen so much this year?

Read more »