Why I'd buy the a2 Milk Co. Ltd this April

Here's why the a2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2m) could be a buy.

| More on:
a woman

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

One business I continue to like as a growth stock is the a2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2m), although I must admit as a $10 billion baby formula and milk company it is high up the risk curve.

As such I wouldn't suggest committing more than 2%-3% of your available investment capital into the business.

Another stock I tipped as my 'top stock pick' for April is CSL Limited (ASX: CSL), it's a blue-chip healthcare business I think should be a core part of investors' portfolios. In other words you could have up to 10% of your Australian investment portfolio in CSL, depending on how bullish you feel.

Still, a2 Milk's overseas growth, especially in China and the U.S., could see the company's value double again given its products of a2-only-milk baby formula and supermarket milk appear to have some good pricing power as consumers believe they're superior to alternatives.

For the six months ending December 31 2018 the group grew net profit 55% to $152.7 million and revenue 41% to NZ$613.1 million, with Chinese infant formula label sales up 82.6%, while its supermarket milk business more than doubled revenue (+114%) in what is also a large market.

Around 80% of revenue still comes from premium infant formula sales, although I think its liquid milk business has as at least as much growth potential.

The balance sheet is also strong with $287.9 million cash on hand as at 31 December 2018 and NZ$0.209 cents per share in earnings over the period. This places it on around 35x FX-adjusted annualised earnings, which is expensive, but I expect the sales and profit growth could justify today's price.

It's also worth noting that much of my investing thesis is based on my belief that the company has some pricing power, which seems a reasonable assumption given its track record.

Legendary investors like Charlie Munger have nominated 'pricing power' as the most important quality in a company to generate strong long-term returns, but if you don't think a2 Milk has pricing power then obviously this stock is not for you!

Foolish takeaway

A common investing mistake is to believe you've missed the boat on great growth businesses and while a $20 billion milk company might sound preposterous, I wouldn't be surprised to see the share price double again over the next 3 years or so.

I'd definitely prefer the outstanding track record of a2 Milk to the mixed track record and regulatory problems of Bellamy's Australia Ltd (ASX: BAL), although that's not to say Bellamy's may not perform well from here as well.

Motley Fool contributor Tom Richardson owns shares of A2 Milk and CSL Ltd. You can find Tom on Twitter @tommyr345 The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of A2 Milk. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Bellamy's Australia. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Share Market News

Three trophies in declining sizes with a red curtain backdrop
Share Gainers

Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

It was a happy end to the trading week!

Read more »

A woman in hammock with headphones on enjoying life which symbolises passive income.
Share Market News

Goodman Group declares 15c unfranked interim distribution for H1 FY26

Goodman Group has declared a 15 cent unfranked interim distribution for the period ending 31 December 2025.

Read more »

A smiling woman holds a Facebook like sign above her head.
Broker Notes

Why Morgans just put buy ratings on these ASX stocks

The broker thinks these stocks could rise 17% to 68%.

Read more »

Business people discussing project on digital tablet.
Broker Notes

How much upside does Macquarie tip for REA Group shares?

Is the broker bullish, bearish, or something in between?

Read more »

A female broker in a red jacket whispers in the ear of a man who has a surprised look on his face as she explains which two ASX 200 shares should do well in today's volatile climate
Broker Notes

Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's why brokers are feeling bullish about these three shares this week.

Read more »

A group of young ASX investors sitting around a laptop with an older lady standing behind them explaining how investing works.
Broker Notes

5 ASX shares to buy now: experts

ASX 200 shares are having a ripper day on Friday, as we reveal 5 stocks with buy ratings from the…

Read more »

Bored man sitting at his desk with his laptop.
Share Fallers

Why Austal, Fenix Resources, Metcash, and Polynovo shares are falling today

These shares are ending the week in the red. But why?

Read more »

Person pointing at an increasing blue graph which represents a rising share price.
Share Gainers

Why 4DMedical, Dateline, Deep Yellow, and Newmont shares are pushing higher today

These shares are ending the week with a bang. But why?

Read more »