The BHP Group share price is up 15% this year: Is it too late to invest?

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX:BHP) share price has been in fine form in 2018. Is it too late to buy the mining giant's shares? Goldman Sachs doesn't think it is…

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The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price has been one of the best performing blue chips on the ASX 200 this year.

Year to date the mining giant's shares have climbed over 15%.

Why is the BHP share price up 15% this year?

BHP's shares have been on fire this year thanks to its bumper full year profit result and decision to return substantial funds to shareholders following asset sales.

In FY 2018 total revenue jumped 20% to US$43.6 billion and underlying net profit increased by a third to US$8.9 billion.

This strong result was driven by higher commodity prices and increased production of its key commodities.

At the time of its result, management reaffirmed plans to return the net proceeds from the US$10.8 billion sale of its unconventional shale assets in the United States.

Fast forward to today and this return to shareholders is just a matter of days away.

BHP's shares will go ex-dividend for its US$1.02 (A$1.45) per share special dividend on January 10. After which, this dividend will be paid to eligible shareholders at the end of the month on January 30.

Based on its last close price, this special dividend equates to a fully franked 4.2% yield.

Is it too late to invest?

Although its shares have rallied strongly this year, I don't think it is too late to pick up shares.

Earlier this month a note out of Goldman Sachs revealed that the broker has added BHP to its ANZ conviction buy list with a price target of $37.00.

This price target implies potential upside of 8.3% over the next 12 months but increases into the high-teens if you factor in its special dividend and next year's interim and final dividends.

Goldman is positive on BHP due to its belief that the mining giant is only halfway through a multi-year re-rating. It expects returns to improve significantly due to its strategy of focusing on maximising cash flow through high-returning growth.

The broker is also positive on Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) and Alumina Limited (ASX: AWC), but BHP remains is preferred pick in the space.

Overall, I agree with Goldman Sachs and would class BHP as a buy right now.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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