Commonwealth Bank of Australia at $100 a share: Forget about it!

Shareholders in Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) who have blindly focussed on the yield may want to consider the downside risks to the share price.

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Last week was a horror week for shareholders in Australia's four major banks. The "Big Four" which all provided profit updates to the market saw significant share price falls, and this resulted in a horror week for the S&P/ASX 200 (Index: ^AXJO) (ASX: XJO) which recorded a drop of 3%.

These were the share price declines from largest to smallest:

  • Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) down 7.3%
  • Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) down 6.9%
  • Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ASX: ANZ) down 5.3%
  • National Australia Bank Ltd. (ASX: NAB) down 4.4%

There are plenty of theories as to the core reason behind the sell-off in banking stocks but needless to say; the wind appears to have been taken out of their sails.

Goodbye $100

As I noted here last month, Commonwealth Bank was just $8 short of crossing the $100 per share mark which would have heralded a stunning upswing from the darkest days on the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in early 2009.

However, with Commonwealth Bank's share price having now retreated to close Friday's trading session at $82.64 that triple-digit figure now looks out of reach.

Hello $60

At the start of 2013 the share price of Commonwealth Bank was just over $60 a share. In the space of just two-and-a-half years the stock soared to within a whisker of $100. Arguably the run-up in share price was more so thanks to the momentum of the so-called "yield trade" which is a consequence of the record low interest rates rather than based upon a conservative assessment of long-term value.

Now, while I'm not predicting that the stock is set for a fall to $60 anytime soon, shareholders should remind themselves that for the majority of the past five years, the share price of Commonwealth Bank has traded below the $60 level, not above it.

Motley Fool contributor Tim McArthur has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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