Buffett gets bullish on Berkshire

It’s a common irony that most share repurchases come at the worst possible time. Buybacks peak when shares are expensive and dry up when they’re cheap. What’s meant as a way to create shareholder wealth habitually destroys it.

Berkshire Hathaway is a different story. Warren Buffett’s company hasn’t repurchased a dollar of stock over the years until now, when shares are effectively the cheapest they’ve ever been.

Berkshire’s board of directors authorised a share-repurchase program of an unspecified amount, so long as the buybacks don’t bring the company’s cash hoard below $20 billion.

Why is simple. “In the opinion of our Board and management, the underlying businesses of Berkshire are worth considerably more than” the current price, the company said in a statement.

Pounding the table
That wasn’t the first time Berkshire management has pounded the hammer on valuation. In July, Vice Chairman Charlie Munger said that Berkshire’s share price “is at a point Buffett and I never anticipated it would go to.” Shares went on to fall another 15% after he made that comment.

Buffett himself has laid out ground rules for share repurchases. In Berkshire’s 1999 annual report, he wrote that, “We will never make purchases with the intention of stemming a decline in Berkshire’s price. Rather we will make them if and when we believe that they represent an attractive use of the Company’s money.”

He went on: “We will not repurchase shares unless we believe Berkshire stock is selling well below intrinsic value, conservatively calculated.”

Asked about share repurchases in 2009, Buffett said they would only come when Berkshire’s stock traded “demonstrably lower than intrinsic value.” Apparently, it now is.

How cheap?
Just how cheap is the Berkshire Hathaway? We’ve argued here the best way to value Berkshire is the price-to-book ratio. On that measure, its shares are about the cheapest they’ve been in at least two decades.

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor’s

Before surging 8% on the news, Berkshire shares traded at 1.02 times book value, or about 50% below their historic average. Demonstrably cheap, you might say.

Stuck for ideas?
There’s a broader point here regarding whether these repurchases say something about Buffett’s investment outlook.

Does repurchasing stock mean he’s run out of other ideas for the company’s cash? That’s doubtful. In the past quarter alone, Berkshire spent around $15 billion on acquisitions and investments, most recently the $5 billion injection into Bank of America at gracious terms, and a 10 million-share purchase of long-time favourite Wells Fargo.

As sharemarkets crashed in early August, Buffett minced no words:

“[Aug. 8], we spent more money in the stock market buying than any day this year.”

Berkshire has hardly shown a blip of slowdown in its ability to put cash to work.

The Foolish bottom line
Repurchases do, however, allow Buffett to put a massive amount of money to good use in a single investment. Unless shares rally substantially from here, it’s not unreasonable to think Berkshire could repurchase more than $10 billion worth of stock. If it does, it’d be one of the largest single investments the company has made over the past decade.

What’s better than the world’s best investor turning bullish on his own company and putting money where his mouth is? For Berkshire shareholders, this might be about as good as it gets.

Want to read more about the world’s most famous investor? Motley Fool readers can click here to unlock the first chapter of The Motley Fool’s new book, Warren Buffett Invests Like A Girl, And Why You Should Too. It’s totally FREE.

This article is authorised by Bruce Jackson. The Motley Fool has a fine disclosure policy.

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