BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares tumbled lower in September.
The mining giant's shares are $59.80 at the time of writing. That's around an 11% decline over the past month, but it is still roughly 31% higher year-to-date.
For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is down around 5% over the past month and 1% higher year-to-date, at the time of writing.
Image source: Getty Images
What happened to BHP shares in September?
BHP was pushed into the spotlight in early September after news that China's biggest steelmaker, China Baowu Steel Group, is reportedly considering buying into one of BHP's largest iron ore mines.
Australia's Federal opposition has already objected. The Coalition has said that Labor must not allow foreign entities to buy one of Western Australia's top iron ore mines.
Just last week, mining activities at BHP's Escondida copper mine in Chile were suspended after a fatal accident. There is no indication when production might resume.
Under Chilean mining regulations, operations cannot restart following a fatal accident until safety inspectors have confirmed that conditions are safe.
The halt raised concerns about the miner's output, and also raised safety concerns, which has contributed to the latest share price slide.
And all this has happened amid a broad market downturn, driven by rising oil prices and interest rate concerns, which have also dampened investor sentiment.
So, what's ahead for BHP shares in October?
Is the ASX mining stock primed for a rebound? Or are there more headwinds coming?
Here's what the experts think.
Broker forecasts for BHP shares
It looks like the experts are reserved about the outlook for the miner's shares over the next 12 months.
Market Index data shows that most analysts rate BHP shares as a hold. The $61 average target price suggests a hold rating for BHP shares, with about 2% upside at the time of writing.
TradingView data shows something similar. Again, the majority have a hold rating on the shares. The average target price is a little higher, at $62.13 a piece, which implies a potential 4% upside at the time of writing.
Morgan Stanley has a buy rating and a $68 target price on BHP shares.
Red Leaf Securities has a hold rating on the mining shares. The broker warns that a softer global growth outlook and uncertainty surrounding Chinese commodity demand limits the case for aggressively buying the stock right now.
Dylan Evans from Catapult Wealth also has a hold rating on the shares. He said that the miner's full-year results were impressive. But added that future earnings will be influenced by the copper price.
