BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares slipped fractionally to $60.78 during Monday afternoon trading. That follows a softer month, with the mining giant down around 7%.
But zoom out, and the picture flips completely: BHP shares have surged roughly 34% year to date and a stunning 53% over the past 12 months.
After a run like that, the obvious question is whether there's anything left in the tank. Here are five reasons the answer might be yes.
Image source: Getty Images
1. BHP is quietly becoming a copper giant
Forget the old image of BHP shares as an iron ore miner with side hustles. Copper is now doing the heavy lifting. In FY 2026, copper contributed more than half of BHP's underlying EBITDA for the first time ever, with production hitting roughly 2 million tonnes.
It gets bigger from here. BHP's copper growth pipeline could lift attributable production by around 40% by FY 2035. That's a full-throttle bet on a metal the company believes is set to ride the electrification, digitalisation, and power-demand supercycle.
2. Iron ore hasn't gone anywhere
None of this means BHP is walking away from iron ore. WA Iron Ore delivered record production in FY 2026 and, according to BHP, remains the world's lowest-cost major iron ore operation. The target now is production above 305 million tonnes a year.
That's not a dying business propping up a new one. It's a cash-printing machine that can bankroll the next growth chapter of BHP shares without forcing shareholders to gamble on unproven ventures.
3. A massive potash bet flying under the radar
BHP is about to add an entirely new commodity to its arsenal. The Jansen potash project in Canada was 84% complete at the end of FY 2026 and remains on track for first production in mid-2027 — with an expected operating life beyond 60 years.
That's exposure to global food security and agricultural demand, sitting alongside BHP's traditional commodity mix. It's a diversification play most miners simply can't match.
4. The cash machine just got louder
BHP generated US$9.8 billion of free cash flow in FY 2026 — an 83% jump. Net debt fell below US$9 billion, and the company handed shareholders US$8.7 billion in dividends, its biggest annual payout in four years.
For income investors in BHP shares, that's not a footnote. That's the headline.
5. Growth without losing the plot
Here's the part that should reassure the sceptics: BHP isn't just throwing cash at new mines and hoping for the best.
Management is squeezing productivity and technology out of existing operations, with unit costs running 6% lower on average across major assets in FY 2026 — despite inflation and rising diesel costs working against them.
Should investors keep watching BHP shares?
A 53% gain over 12 months means valuation and commodity price risk can't be brushed aside. But the real story here isn't the share price, it's that BHP itself is changing shape.
This isn't the old BHP shares wearing a higher price tag. It's a copper-led growth business, propped up by a world-class iron ore operation, a brand-new potash division, and a cash engine running hotter than ever.
The real question for investors isn't whether BHP has already run too far. It's whether this reinvention can deliver another leg of growth, without BHP losing the shareholder return discipline that made it a market darling in the first place.
