Guzman Y Gomez (ASX: GYG) shares have staged a red-hot comeback since plumbing their all-time closing low of $15.20 apiece on 2 April.
On Tuesday afternoon, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) Mexican fast food restaurant chain were changing hands for $25.39 each.
That sees the stock up a remarkable 67.0% since 2 April.
And that's not including the 40.8 cent per share fully franked final dividend the company declared when it reported its full year FY 2026 results on 21 August.
Guzman Y Gomez stock traded ex-dividend yesterday. Meaning if you owned shares at market close on Monday, you can expect to see that passive income payout land in your bank account on 30 September.
But following on the strong five-month share price rally, is this ASX 200 stock still a good buy today?
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Guzman Y Gomez shares: Buy, hold or sell?
Baker Young's Toby Grimm recently analysed the outlook for the company's surging shares (courtesy of The Bull).
"GYG is a Mexican themed restaurant chain," he said. "The share price has rallied strongly after a decision to exit loss making US operations in May, followed by encouraging full year results in August."
However, Grimm foresees potential headwinds from exiting the world's biggest economy.
He noted:
While there's a near term benefit of withdrawing from the US, the decision also removes long-term expansion potential. Also, it places more pressure on Australia, Singapore and Japan to perform to greater heights to justify what we consider a lofty price-earnings multiple.
And with Guzman Y Gomez shares having rocketed off their lows, Grimm issued a sell recommendation on the ASX 200 stock.
He concluded:
The shares materially exceed our valuation. The shares have risen from $16 on May 20 to trade at $26.85 on September 10. Investors may want to consider taking a profit at these levels given the Australian economy is dealing with a cost of living crisis.
What's the latest from the ASX 200 fast food stock?
GYG reported a 31.6% year-on-year increase in FY 2026 statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) to $40.6 million.
However, Guzman Y Gomez booked a statutory group NPAT loss of $26.7 million due to its US exit.
Commenting on the results, founder and co-CEO Steven Marks said:
Our Australia Segment has reported network sales of $1.4 billion, up 17.9% on last year, demonstrating continued consumer demand for clean, fresh, made-to-order food, loaded with flavour and prepared at speed.
This momentum has translated into strong earnings growth, with underlying EBITDA up 28.7%, highlighting the strong operating leverage embedded in our business.
Guzman Y Gomez shares closed up 11.4% on the day of the results release.
