CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares have staged a remarkable comeback, surging 35% in the past month and gaining 94% from their 52-week low in June.
But zoom out, and the picture looks less spectacular. CSL shares remain about 16% lower over the past 12 months.
So, after such a powerful rebound, where do experts think the biotech giant could go from here?
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What do brokers think?
Not every broker believes the recovery is firmly established. Of 19 analysts tracked on TradingView, 10 rate CSL shares a hold, while nine have a buy or strong-buy rating.
More importantly, the average 12-month price target is $171.94, below the share price of $174.50 at the time of writing.
However, forecasts vary dramatically. The most bullish target sits at $206.86, implying another 19% upside, while the lowest is just $131.56, pointing to roughly 25% downside.
Macquarie is among the most bearish, with a neutral rating and target of just over $133. UBS is considerably more optimistic at $181, while Morgan Stanley has a $172 target.
Bell Potter has retained its hold rating on the ASX biotech stock but recently increased its target from $120 to $150.
Why have CSL shares soared?
The catalyst was CSL's FY26 result. On the surface, it looked ugly, with the $80 billion biotech company reporting a US$2.6 billion net loss after tax.
But investors quickly looked beyond the headline number.
The loss included US$7.1 billion of pre-tax impairments and US$799 million of restructuring costs, much of which was non-cash. Most impairments related to CSL Vifor intangibles and under-utilised property, plant and equipment.
Investors had already received a warning in May, when CSL flagged around US$5 billion of impairments and cut its FY26 guidance.
Excluding exceptional items, underlying NPATA was US$3.1 billion, down just 2%. Revenue fell 1% to US$15.8 billion but still beat analyst expectations.
For investors, the result therefore represented something potentially more valuable than headline profit: a reset year, cleaner balance sheet and better-than-feared outlook.
CSL Behring remains the standout. Its plasma division generated US$11.4 billion of revenue, while immunoglobulin revenue held steady at US$6.2 billion. CSL Vifor grew revenue 3% to US$2.4 billion, although Seqirus remained under pressure, with revenue falling 8% to US$2 billion.
Could FY27 send the biotech stock higher?
The bull case centres on FY27. CSL expects underlying NPAT to grow approximately 5%, ahead of consensus expectations of around 2%.
Behring is forecast to deliver mid-single-digit growth, with immunoglobulins expected to grow at a mid-to-high single-digit rate.
The major challenge remains Vifor, where revenue is expected to plunge about 25% as iron generics enter the market.
For CSL shares, the recovery story is clearly gaining momentum. The question now is whether improving fundamentals can justify the renewed optimism already priced into the stock.
