Investors have a wide selection of ASX bank shares to choose from, including ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares. To decide which is a good option, we should look at what the potential returns could be.
While there are similarities to National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) and Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), there are differences in terms of how much earnings comes from lending to households, business banking services and so on.
Let's look at the predicted returns from analysts regarding ASX shares.
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ANZ share price target
A price target tells investors where they think the share price will be in 12 months from the time of the investment call.
Obviously, a price target is not a guaranteed return (or decline), but it does indicate whether they think the business is overvalued or undervalued.
According to CMC Invest, there have been eight ratings on the business within the last three months, with three of those being a buy, four being a hold and one being a sell.
Of those eight ratings, the average price target is $35.66, which implies a possible decline of 6% over the next year.
The latest update from the ASX bank share was the third-quarter of FY26. Compared to the quarterly average of the first half of FY26, operating income grew 1%, operating expenses increased 2%, leading to profit before provisions being flat, and cash profit increased 1% to $1.9 billion.
A growth rate of 1% for cash profit is not exactly going to excite the market.
However, its loan growth was slightly faster, with net loans and advances increasing by 3% between March 2026 and June 2026, reaching $846 billion. Meanwhile, customer deposits rose 2% over the three months, with the balance reaching $786 billion at 30 June 2026.
With a $10,000 investment in ANZ shares, a decline of 6% would become approximately $9,400.
Potential dividends?
ASX bank shares like ANZ are known for their dividends, and the passive income is normally a sizeable amount.
According to CMC Invest, the business is projected to pay an amount that equates to a dividend yield of 4.5% excluding franking credits and approximately 5.9% with franking credits.
Therefore, the passive income may offset the potential capital decline, bringing the total investment return to around $10,000.
However, I'm not sure that investing for a flat return is an appealing option. If I were going to invest in an ASX share, I'd rather pick something I was more confident about the prospects for positive returns.
