CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares have staged a remarkable comeback, surging 35% in a month and 87% from their 52-week low in June.
After a bruising year, however, investors now face a critical question: has CSL's turnaround finally arrived, or has the rebound run too far?
More importantly, where do brokers see the CSL share price heading over the next 12 months?
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Why has the biotech stock soared?
The catalyst was CSL's FY26 result. On the surface, it looked ugly, with the $80 billion biotech company reporting a US$2.6 billion net loss after tax.
But investors quickly looked beyond the headline number. The loss included US$7.1 billion of pre-tax impairments and US$799 million of restructuring costs, much of which was non-cash. Most of the impairments related to CSL Vifor intangibles and under-utilised property, plant and equipment.
Investors in CSL shares had already received a warning in May, when CSL flagged around US$5 billion of impairments and cut its FY26 guidance. Excluding the exceptional items, underlying NPATA was US$3.1 billion, down just 2%. Revenue fell 1% to US$15.8 billion but still beat analyst expectations.
For investors, the result therefore represented something potentially more valuable than headline profit: a reset year, a cleaner balance sheet and a better-than-feared outlook.
CSL Behring remains the standout. Its plasma division generated US$11.4 billion of revenue, while immunoglobulin revenue held steady at US$6.2 billion. CSL Vifor grew revenue 3% to US$2.4 billion, although Seqirus remained under pressure, with revenue falling 8% to US$2 billion.
Could the FY27 forecast send CSL shares higher?
The bull case for CSL shares centres on FY27. CSL expects underlying NPAT to grow approximately 5%, ahead of consensus expectations of around 2%. Behring is forecast to deliver mid-single-digit growth, with immunoglobulins expected to grow at a mid-to-high single-digit rate.
The major challenge remains Vifor, where revenue is expected to plunge about 25% as iron generics enter the market.
For CSL shares, the recovery story is clearly gaining momentum. The question now is whether improving fundamentals can justify the renewed optimism already priced into the stock.
Where do brokers see CSL shares going?
Not every broker believes the recovery is firmly established. Of 18 analysts tracked on TradingView, 10 rate CSL shares a hold, while eight have a buy or strong-buy rating. The average 12-month price target is $164.69, below the current share price of around $171.45.
However, the forecasts vary dramatically. The most bullish target is $205.22, implying another 20% upside, while the lowest is just $132.25, pointing to more than 23% downside.
Macquarie is among the most bearish, with a neutral rating and target of just over $133. UBS is considerably more optimistic at $181, while Morgan Stanley has a $172 target.
Bell Potter has retained its hold rating but recently increased its target from $120 to $150.
The takeaway? CSL's turnaround is gathering momentum, but the stock's spectacular rebound means investors are now paying for a recovery that still needs to prove itself.
