CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares have staged an extraordinary comeback, jumping 49% in just one month. But after a bruising year, investors face a crucial question: has the turnaround finally arrived, or has the rebound run too far?
Following last week's FY26 result, brokers have reassessed their forecasts, revealing a striking divide over where CSL shares could head next.
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Where do brokers see CSL shares going?
CSL has spent the past few years battling higher costs, operational problems and fading investor confidence. And not every broker believes the recovery is firmly established.
TradingView data shows 10 of 18 analysts rate CSL a hold, while eight have a buy or strong-buy rating. The average 12-month price target is $164.69, below the current share price of around $173.88.
However, the forecasts vary dramatically. The most bullish target sits at $205.22, implying another 18% upside, while the lowest is just $132.25, pointing to more than 23% downside.
Macquarie is the most bearish among the major brokers, with a neutral rating and target of just over $133. UBS is considerably more optimistic at $181, while Morgan Stanley has a $172 target.
Bell Potter recently retained its hold rating on CSL shares but increased its price target from $120 to $150.
Why has the biotech stock surged?
The catalyst was CSL's FY26 result, released last week. On the surface, it looked ugly: the company reported a US$2.6 billion net loss after tax.
But there was much more to the number. The loss included US$7.1 billion of pre-tax impairments and US$799 million of restructuring costs, much of which was non-cash. Most impairments related to CSL Vifor intangibles and under-utilised property, plant and equipment.
Investors had already received a warning in May, when CSL flagged around US$5 billion of impairments and cut its FY26 guidance. Excluding these exceptional items, underlying NPATA was US$3.1 billion, down just 2%. Revenue fell 1% to US$15.8 billion but still beat analyst expectations.
For investors, the result therefore represented something potentially more valuable than headline profit: a reset year, cleaner balance sheet and better-than-feared outlook.
CSL Behring remains the standout. Its plasma division generated US$11.4 billion of revenue, with immunoglobulin revenue steady at US$6.2 billion.
CSL Vifor grew revenue 3% to US$2.4 billion, while Seqirus remained under pressure, with revenue down 8% to US$2 billion.
Could the forecast send CSL shares higher?
The bull case centres on FY27. CSL expects underlying NPAT to grow approximately 5%, ahead of consensus expectations of around 2%.
Behring is forecast to deliver mid-single-digit growth, with immunoglobulins growing at a mid-to-high single-digit rate.
The major challenge remains Vifor, where revenue is expected to plunge about 25% as iron generics enter the market.
For CSL shares, the recovery story is clearly gaining momentum. But with the stock already up sharply, investors must decide whether improving fundamentals can justify the renewed optimism.
