CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares are finally showing signs of life, climbing 12% this month after a brutal sell-off. But with the ASX healthcare stock still down 21% in 2026 and 50% over the past year, investors are desperate for proof that a turnaround is underway.
That proof could arrive tomorrow when CSL releases its FY26 results.
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What should investors expect?
The headline FY26 profit shouldn't come as a major surprise after management's May update.
CSL said it expected FY26 net profit after tax and amortisation of around US$3.1 billion. But for CSL shares, the finer details could matter far more than the headline number. CSL Behring, historically the company's key growth engine, has faced significant challenges.
US immunoglobulin demand remains strong, growing at a mid-to-high-single-digit rate. However, reduced channel inventory is expected to knock around US$300 million from revenue.
Lower albumin prices in China are expected to reduce revenue by another US$200 million.
Investors in CSL shares will therefore be watching closely for signs that Behring's sales momentum and margins are beginning to recover.
More concerns for CSL
CSL Vifor could provide another source of concern. In June, European regulators recommended revoking Tavneos' marketing authorisation in the European Union.
While Vifor is smaller than Behring, further weakness could offset improvements elsewhere. CSL also expects substantial additional impairments across FY26 and FY27, much of which is connected with Vifor.
There's also leadership uncertainty, with the search for a permanent chief executive still underway.
Meanwhile, CSL plans to demerge its Seqirus influenza vaccine business by the end of FY26. That move could unlock value for CSL shares by allowing the businesses to pursue more focused strategies. It would potentially give investors a clearer picture of each company's underlying performance.
Can the stock keep climbing?
CSL shares remain firmly in turnaround territory. Tomorrow's FY26 result could reveal whether the healthcare giant's core businesses are finally stabilising or whether shareholders need to endure more pain.
After such a steep decline, even modest evidence of improvement could give CSL shares another meaningful lift.
Investors will want to see whether immunoglobulin demand remains robust and, crucially, whether management expects performance to improve in FY27.
The broker community has identified some reasons for optimism, including the potential for CSL to regain market share and early signs of recovery in the albumin market.
But one strong month doesn't make a turnaround. For CSL shares to sustain their recovery, investors will need evidence that earnings are stabilising, margins are improving and the company's major businesses are heading in the right direction.
Tomorrow's results could be the moment CSL proves the worst is over — or reminds investors why this turnaround remains a work in progress.
