Why did DroneShield shares crash 30% in July to new one-year lows?

DroneShield shares got smashed in July. But why.

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The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gained a healthy 2.3% in July, but DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO) shares didn't join in the party.

On 30 June, shares in the ASX 200 drone defence company closed the day trading for $2.42. When the closing bell rang on 31 July, shares were swapping hands for $1.70 apiece.

This put the DroneShield share price down 29.7% over the month just past.

And it saw the share price fall to a fresh 52-week low on 31 July, edging below the $1.72 a share closing price notched on 21 November.

Following on another month of heavy selling, shares in the ASX defence stock finished July down a painful 74.3% since the 9 October all-time closing high of $6.60.

So, what's been sending investors to their sell buttons?

A man sitting at his desktop computer leans forward onto his elbows and yawns while he rubs his eyes as though he is very tired.

Image source: Getty Images

What happened with DroneShield shares in July?

DroneShield failed to catch tailwinds in July, despite the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine continuing to grind on, with all sides employing drones for both offensive and defensive measures.

The only news deemed price sensitive to DroneShield shares was a 2026 calendar year trading update and a new contract announcement, released on 28 July.

As for the trading update, the ASX 200 defence stock forecast first-half (H1 2026) revenue will increase by 74% from H1 2025 to $125.8 million.

For the full 2026 calendar year, management provided revenue guidance between $250 million and $270 million. That's up 15% to 25% on the company's 2025 revenue.

Commenting on the first half, DroneShield managing director and CEO Angus Bean said:

We are pleased to continue our engagement with leading partners and end-customers in Europe, which is a key growth market for DroneShield. These awards demonstrate the strength of our regional partnerships and the relevance of DroneShield's technology in complex military environments.

It also validates our continued investment in personnel, manufacturing capability and partner relationships in the region.

The company also announced that it had secured $23.2 million in contracts with a European military end-customer.

In a sign of lofty investor expectations, and with the stock still trading at a very demanding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, DroneShield shares closed down 13.2% on the day of the release.

How are the early days of August tracking?

DroneShield shares are off to a strong start in August.

On Monday, shares in the drone defence company closed up 7.1% to end the day at $1.815.

In early trade today, the second day of trading in August, DroneShield shares are trading for $1.945 each, up another 7.2%.

That sees the ASX 200 stock up 14.4% since the July close.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DroneShield. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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