Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares are climbing higher today. At the time of writing, the shares are up around 1% and changing hands at $17.99 each.
The increase is good news for investors, but it barely makes a dent in the volume of losses shed over the past couple of months.
Since spiking at a year-to-date high of $22.99 in mid-May, Fortescue shares have fallen 22%. The shares are now down 19% year to date and are around 2% lower than they were 12 months ago.
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Why are the miner's shares tumbling?
The ASX miner's shares tumbled lower during the first quarter of 2026, as weakness in iron ore prices, broad commodity volatility, and profit-taking weighed heavily on its outlook.
Ongoing conflict in the Middle East has also put downward pressure on shares, driven by concerns about rising costs, oil supply risks, and broader market uncertainty.
The issue is, while Fortescue has a copper footprint, the miner primarily mines and exports iron ore. This means, as we've seen throughout the first half of 2026, the miner's shares have fluctuated in line with the price of iron ore.
Trading Economics data shows that the price of iron ore spiked to a two-year high in mid-May, around the time Fortescue shares also spiked. Since then, the shares have crashed to around a two-year low.
The price of iron ore is expected to soften through late 2026. It is then forecast to gradually decline through to 2030 as supply increases and Chinese steel demand tapers off.
What do the experts forecast for Fortescue shares?
It's not only investors who have pulled back from Fortescue shares over the past few months; analysts have as well.
According to the data, they're now divided about where the share price can go from here.
Market Index shows brokers are evenly split between buy, sell, and hold ratings. But the average $18.78 target price currently implies a potential 4% upside.
TradingView data is more bearish. Out of 17 analysts, the majority (eight) have a hold rating, but another seven have a sell/strong sell rating. Two analysts rate the shares as a buy.
The average $18.28 target price implies a potential 2% upside at the time of writing. But the range between the highest and lowest average target price is huge. Some tip the shares to jump 28% to $23.01. But others think they could fall 14% to $15.56 over the next 12 months, at the time of writing.
