Are Domino's shares a buy, hold or sell following their earnings update?

Analysts are divided over the outlook for the fast-food company.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Domino's Pizza Enterprises Ltd (ASX: DMP) has announced more than a quarter of a billion dollars worth of write-downs and a fall in same-store sales, while reiterating that its underlying net profit is expected to come in as forecast.

Brokers UBS and RBC Capital Markets have run the ruler over the results and have diverging views and price targets on the company, which we'll get to shortly.

First, let's look at what the company announced.

A woman holds a piece of pizza in one hand and has a shocked look on her face.

Image source: Getty Images

Profit stable as the business resets

Domino's said in a statement to the ASX that it expected net profit to come in at $118 to $122 million, as previously guided, while its franchisee profitability is up 11.3%.

The company said it had delivered $60 to $70 million in annualised cost savings, and generated free cash flow of about $164 million, up about $116 million compared to FY25.  

And while same-store sales had fallen, the company said this was expected.

As they said:

The result reflects the Company's deliberate transition towards profitable and sustainable sales growth, with long-term franchisee profitability prioritised over headline sales. During FY26, the Company focused on improving unit economics through pricing optimisation, promotional discipline and operational efficiencies rather than pursuing lower-margin transaction growth. While this resulted in lower same-store sales, franchisee profitability improved.

Domino's added that it had been trialling new strategies in Western Australia, which had been successful and which would now be rolled out nationwide in FY27.

Brokers are split on where to from here for Domino's shares

RBC Capital Markets said net profit marginally ahead of consensus, improved cash flow, and modestly improved franchise profitability were all positives.

But they added:

We view reported same store sales growth outcomes as difficult to ignore, with DMP missing RBC and consensus across the board. While ANZ only missed by ~20 basis points, Europe and Asia missed RBC by -1.7% and -2.7% respectively. We think a key additional piece of information in August will be the first 7 – 8 weeks of 1H27 same store sales growth, as we note VA consensus forecasts +42bps for group same store sales growth in 1H27 and the exit rate implied by today's update may suggest potential downside risk to this.

RBC has a price target on Domino's of $17.

Meanwhile, the analysts at UBS are much more positive on the outlook for the company, with a price target of $21, although this was lowered from $22.

UBS noted the company's cost savings targets were on track, and while same-store sales growth fell, this was due to a focus on profitable sales.

They retained their buy rating, "as the increased focus on franchisee & DMP profitability progresses, while cost & capex discipline supports earnings & reduces leverage, with the DMP consensus 1yr fwd P/E multiple (13.9x) reflecting an attractive valuation''.

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Domino's Pizza Enterprises. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Domino's Pizza Enterprises. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Broker Notes

Young successful engineer, with blueprints, notepad, and digital tablet, observing the project implementation on construction site and in mine.
Broker Notes

Brokers think Mineral Resources shares will go how high?

A strong quarterly is cause for optimism.

Read more »

Businessman studying a high technology holographic stock market chart.
Broker Notes

2 brokers agree, this ASX critical minerals stock could jump more than 90%

A strong quarter has this company well placed.

Read more »

A man dressed in a business suit freefalls from a rocky cliff with a grey sky background.
Broker Notes

Down 84%, why Bapcor shares may have further to fall

A leading analyst expects that Bapcor’s beaten down shares could continue to struggle in 2026. But why?

Read more »

ASX 200 shares broker downgrade origami paper fortune teller with buy hold sell and dollar sign options
Broker Notes

Up 155% since April, is it too late to buy Megaport shares today?

A leading analyst delivers his forecast for Megaport’s outperforming shares.

Read more »

A woman in a red dress holding up a red graph.
Broker Notes

Macquarie tips these 3 ASX stocks to return better than 45%

Recent updates have the broker optimistic about these companies.

Read more »

Business people discussing project on digital tablet.
Broker Notes

Leading broker on DroneShield shares and rising competition 

Bell Potter has been running the rule over this popular stock.

Read more »

A young female investor sits in her home office looking at her ipad and smiling as she sees the QBE share price rising
Broker Notes

Why Morgans rates these ASX shares as buys this week

Fresh company updates have given Morgans three very different reasons to remain bullish.

Read more »

A person leans over to whisper a secret to a colleague during a meeting.
Broker Notes

Buy, hold, sell: Cleanaway Waste Management, Aurizon, James Hardie shares

Let's check out some new ratings on three ASX shares.

Read more »