BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have created significant wealth for long-term investors. Over the past decade, the mining giant's share price has surged almost 235%, comfortably outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which gained around 60% over the same period.
But could Australia's largest mining company repeat that performance and triple in value again by 2036? While predicting a decade of share price returns is impossible, BHP has several powerful long-term trends working in its favour.
Here are three reasons the mining giant could potentially deliver another market-beating run.
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Demand for copper could drive the next growth phase
BHP has historically been known as a major iron ore producer, with its Western Australian operations generating billions of dollars in profits during periods of strong steel demand.
However, the future growth story of BHP shares is increasingly linked to copper. Copper is a critical commodity for electrification, renewable energy, electric vehicles, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and global power networks. As economies transition towards lower-carbon energy systems, demand for copper is expected to rise significantly.
The mining giant has been positioning itself for this trend, including its acquisition of OZ Minerals in 2023, which strengthened its exposure to copper and other future-facing commodities.
If copper prices remain elevated and BHP successfully expands production, the commodity could become a major earnings driver over the next decade.
The asset base could keep generating cash
One of BHP's biggest advantages is the quality and scale of its global operations. The company owns some of the world's largest and lowest-cost mining assets, including its Western Australian iron ore operations, Olympic Dam copper-gold project, and Jansen potash development in Canada.
Low-cost producers typically have a major advantage through commodity cycles because they can remain profitable when weaker competitors struggle.
That financial strength has allowed BHP shares to consistently return billions of dollars to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.
If commodity demand remains healthy, BHP's ability to generate strong free cash flow could continue supporting shareholder returns well into the future.
Long-term resource demand could provide a tailwind
The world is becoming increasingly resource-intensive. Population growth, urbanisation, infrastructure investment, artificial intelligence, and energy security are all expected to support demand for commodities.
Even as the global economy changes, the need for raw materials remains essential. Data centres require enormous amounts of electricity and copper wiring, while renewable energy projects require significant quantities of metals. BHP's scale means it is positioned to benefit from these long-term structural trends.
Of course, there are risks. Commodity prices are cyclical, China remains a major source of demand uncertainty, and large mining projects require significant capital investment.
A threefold return over 10 years would also require strong execution from management and favourable commodity conditions.
However, BHP has already demonstrated its ability to create substantial shareholder wealth over long periods. If copper demand accelerates, its growth projects deliver, and commodity markets remain supportive, another decade of strong returns may not be out of the question.
