If you are looking for an ASX 200 share to buy, then it could be worth considering Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL) shares.
That's because according to Bell Potter, there could be big returns on the cards for buyers at these levels.
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What is the broker is saying?
Bell Potter has been busy updating its model to reflect mark-to-markets and appears confident its update next month will be positive. It said:
Despite earlier risk off, global equity markets recovered and posted outsized returns for the June quarter. We update our model to reflect strong positive mark-to-markets. NWL offers the highest and cleanest leverage across our platform coverage, which is one reason why we continue to favour the name into the trading update (16 July). We upgrade FUA forecasts +1%/+1%/+1% for 2026-28.
It then adds:
Our forecasts already captured the benefit of stronger markets in April, so revisions are a little more modest while our net inflow forecasts remain unchanged. We expect custodial FUA flows of $3.8B for the quarter (which usually build over the course of the year) and market movements of $6.4B. The run-rate has now improved for four consecutive quarters, although our $3.8B forecast implies a slowdown, against the usual seasonality.
Big potential returns
As mentioned at the top, Bell Potter believes this ASX 200 share could deliver big returns for investors over the next 12 months.
According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating and $30.00 price target on Netwealth's shares.
Based on its current share price of $21.76, this implies potential upside of 38% for investors over the next 12 months.
In addition, Bell Potter is forecasting a 2% dividend yield over the same period, bringing the total potential return to approximately 40%.
Commenting on the company and its buy thesis, it said:
Our Buy recommendation is unchanged. NWL no longer trades as a leveraged play on financial markets, which is interesting. Given its increased scale, we would expect the opposite, with free carry having a bigger impact than flows. A shift back into global growth assets should also be supportive. Although it hasn't benefited from this either.
NWL reaffirmed EBITDA margin guidance despite weakness in March, and we count 23 advertised roles (quite large) skewed towards product and corporate, with a focus on senior hires. We have reset our margin expectations to 49.0%. This results in EPS changes of -2%/+0%/+0% for 2026-28.
