Down 22%! Why Woodside shares look primed to rebound

A leading analyst expects Woodside shares are poised to rebound. But why?

After surging 51% from 2 January through to market close on 7 April Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares have come under significant selling pressure.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy stock were recently trading for $27.76. While that leaves the share price up more than 17% year to date, shares have fallen more than 22% since the 7 April close.

Now, I should point out that 7 April represented the highest closing price for Woodside stock since October 2023.

I should also mention that Woodside paid eligible stockholders an 83.5-cent-per-share, fully franked dividend on 27 March. Adding in the full-year dividend of 81.8 cents, paid on 24 September, Woodside shares trade on a 6.0% fully franked trailing dividend yield.

As you're likely aware, Woodside was a clear beneficiary of surging global energy prices following the onset of the Middle East conflict at the end of February.

Indeed, the Brent crude price leapt from US$72 per barrel at the end of February to trade north of US$118 per barrel towards the end of April. Earlier this week, the Brent crude oil price was back down to US$72 per barrel.

Looking ahead, however, Fairmont Equities' Michael Gable believes the ASX 200 oil and gas giant is well-placed to rebound (courtesy of The Bull).

Here's why.

A man in a business suit rides a graphic image of an arrow that is rebounding on a graph.

Image source: Getty Images

Should I buy Woodside shares today?

"We were a buyer of this major energy company prior to the war in Iran," Gable said.

"In our view, the recent share price fall presents another buying opportunity," he added.

Explaining his buy recommendation on Woodside shares, Gable concluded:

Moving forward, we're expecting tighter crude oil supplies to lead to higher prices. Recent weaker crude oil prices is a response to governments releasing oil from strategic reserves, but they now need to be replenished.

As the biggest oil stock on the ASX, Woodside Energy will attract investors when they conclude crude oil prices will be higher for longer.

What's been happening with the ASX 200 energy stock?

Woodside released its March quarter update (Q1 2026) on 29 April.

Highlights included a 7% quarter-on-quarter increase in operating revenue, which reached US$3.26 billion for the three months.

The company achieved the revenue increase despite inclement weather in Western Australia driving an 8% quarterly decline in production to 45.2 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe).

However, that was more than countered by the average realised price Woodside received for its oil and gas, which climbed 11% from the prior quarter to US$63 per barrel of oil equivalent.

Woodside shares closed up 2.0% on the day of the results release.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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