When it comes to investing in the lithium industry, PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) shares are the go-to for many investors.
And while it is undoubtedly one of the highest-quality lithium miners in the world, a strong gain over the past 12 months could mean that upside is limited from here.
That certainly isn't the case for the ASX lithium share in this article according to the team at Bell Potter, with the broker suggesting that it could more than double in value.
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Which ASX lithium share?
The share that Bell Potter is bullish on is lithium developer Ioneer Ltd (ASX: INR).
It is the owner of the Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron project in Nevada, USA.
Bell Potter notes that the project is designed to produce +24ktpa lithium carbonate equivalent and +135ktpa boric acid over the first 25 years.
However, it points out that ore reserves suggest that it could support an 82-year project life at this initial production rate.
Bell Potter was pleased to see that the South Korean government and Hyundai Engineering have taken a shine to the project and has signed non-binding letters of intent this week. It said:
While non-binding, the calibre and commentary from these counterparties provides strong endorsement of INR's project development pathway. INR is currently running a Strategic Partnering Process to introduce new project-level equity funding in support of a Final Investment Decision at Rhyolite Ridge. It is reasonable to assume that the KIND, MOLIT and Hyundai LOIs are part of this process.
The Rhyolite Ridge project is fully permitted; an October 2025 project economic update outlined potential production of 27.8ktpa lithium hydroxide and 135.5ktpa boric acid at a capital cost of US$1.7b and with a lithium AISC of US$4,628/t LCE (net of boron co-product credits). The project is also backed by a US$996m US Department of Energy concessional loan. With cash of US$62m and no debt (31 March 2026), INR is fully funded to FID.
Should you invest?
According to the note, the broker has retained its speculative buy rating on the ASX lithium share with a slightly improved price target of 40 cents (from 39 cents).
Based on its current share price of 15.5 cents, this implies potential upside of approximately 160% for investors over the next 12 months.
Commenting on its buy recommendation, Bell Potter said:
Rhyolite Ridge is strategically important as a fully permitted, near-term and US-located source of lithium and boron supply. Both lithium and boron are USGS-designated critical minerals. Rhyolite Ridge received development approval in October 2024 and engineering design is 70% complete. Lithium markets have recently strengthened, and we expect continued growth in underlying demand and limited new sources of supply will support lithium chemicals prices over the medium to long term. Our INR valuation is $0.40/sh.
Key INR value catalysts are the outcomes of the Strategic Partnering Process in the lead-up to a Final Investment Decision and commencement of development, all expected in 2H 2026.
