BHP shares: Buy, hold or sell?

A leading analyst provides his outlook for BHP's surging shares.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are charging higher today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant closed on Friday trading for $62.93. In late morning trade on Monday, shares are changing hands for $64.82 each, up 3%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is up 1.3% at this same time amid investor optimism over the potential US peace deal announced with Iran.

Today's outperformance is par for the course for the Aussie mining giant over the past year.

While the ASX 200 has gained 4.4% over 12 months, BHP shares have rocketed 73.2%.

And that strong outperformance does not even include the two fully-franked dividends, totalling $1.96 a share, that BHP paid to eligible stockholders over this period.

The ASX 200 mining stock currently trades on a fully-franked 3% trailing dividend yield.

But following on this tremendous run, is the miner still a good buy today?

ASX 200 shares broker downgrade origami paper fortune teller with buy hold sell and dollar sign options

Image Source: Getty Images

Should I buy BHP shares today?

EnviroInvest's Elio D'Amato recently analysed the outlook for BHP stock (courtesy of The Bull).

"This diversified miner produces iron ore, copper and other commodities critical to global economic growth," D'Amato said.

"It remains a core holding in many portfolios due to its scale, balance sheet strength and ability to generate significant cash flow through commodity cycles," he added.

But with the miner falling short of D'Amato's ESG expectations, he issued a hold recommendation on BHP shares.

According to D'Amato:

However, in my view, recent news reports highlighting delays to decarbonisation initiatives and a reduced emphasis on environmental objectives are disappointing. Copper and potash projects still provide exposure to the energy transition, but the environmental investment case is less compelling than it was several years ago.

ASX 200 miner ramping up copper exposure

As D'Amato mentioned above, BHP shares have a significant exposure to the global energy transition, with the miner rapidly expanding its copper footprint.

And for good reason.

Currently trading for US$13,698 per tonne, the copper price has leapt more than 41% over the last year.

As for BHP, in the first half of the 2026 financial year, the ASX 200 mining stock produced 984,000 tonnes of copper. And with copper prices surging, this was the first time that the red metal surpassed iron ore and delivered more than half of BHP's earnings.

BHP reported underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) from its copper division of US$8 billion in H1 FY 2026. That was up 59% year on year, with copper contributing 51% of BHP's half-year underlying EBITDA.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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