Shaw and Partners recently held their TechRise conference in Sydney, where Australian technology companies were invited to present on their outlook.
Out of this, the broking firm has issued a number of research notes on promising companies, two of which I'll look at today.
Let's jump right in.
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Gentrack Group Ltd (ASX: GTK)
Shareholders in Gentrack might well be frustrated, given the company's share price has plunged from levels higher than $12 over the past year to now be changing hands for $3.36.
But the Shaw and Partners team believes the shares can more than double from these levels, with a price target on Gentrack of $8 per share.
The team said Gentrack presented at TechRise, and there was also a follow-up on their recent trading update, where the company said they expected revenue for the full year to come in at $229 to $238 million, which was "lower than our previous guidance".
The Shaw and Partners team said:
The group call stepped through movements in non-recurring revenue and highlighted why current FY26 guidance carries more limited risk, alongside what underpins management's confidence in medium-term targets. In our view, the recent circa-40% sell-off increasingly implies a structural slowdown that management commentary and pipeline visibility do not support.
Gentrack is currently valued at $387.9 million.
Vista Group International Ltd (ASX: VGL)
This company released a trading update to coincide with its TechRise presentation, with revenue expected to come in at $176 to $182 million, with an EBITDA margin of 18% to 20%.
The company specialises in the software that cinemas use to manage all their processes, and claims a 46% global market share, excluding Russia, China, and India.
Vista said it was currently generating cash flow of about $19 million per year, but was targeting $75 million by the end of 2030.
The Shaw and Partners research note on Vista said the main message was that "Vista is increasingly an execution story rather than a demand story, with customers signed and onboarding now the key focus''.
The analyst team added:
FY26 guidance of 10–13% revenue growth and 18–20% margins was reiterated, with management stating the business is 'definitely well on track'. Domestic US box office assumptions (~US$9.7bn) were described as tracking ahead, while foreign exchange was 'slightly in our favour'. Management repeatedly stressed this is now 'absolutely an execution story' with customers already signed and migrations underway.
Shaw and Partners has a price target of $3.70 on Vista Group shares compared with $1.75 currently.
The company is valued at $423.5 million.
