Shares in CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) slid another 2.6% on Thursday to $122.00, marking a fresh nine-year low for the ASX healthcare giant.
The numbers paint a brutal picture. CSL shares are down around 14% over the past month and have lost roughly half their value over the past year.
For a company once viewed as one of the ASX's most dependable long-term growth stories, the fall has been dramatic.
So, what's gone wrong? And more importantly, is there a path back?
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Troubles beyond sector weakness
Healthcare stocks broadly have struggled in 2026. Investor money has rotated heavily into energy producers, miners, and more defensive sectors, leaving healthcare names under pressure.
But CSL's problems have gone beyond sector weakness.
The company has faced softer vaccine demand, operational restructuring, and the abrupt departure of its CEO. Those issues have weighed heavily on investor confidence.
Recent developments in the US have added another challenge. The removal of the US military's annual flu vaccination requirement has raised concerns around future influenza vaccine demand. That matters because CSL has significant exposure to the US vaccine market through its Seqirus business.
Investors now worry vaccine revenue growth could weaken further, especially in areas where demand had previously benefited from mandates.
Classic value trap?
All of that has helped fuel the sell-off.
And after such a sharp decline, some investors are beginning to ask whether CSL shares are turning into a classic value trap. A stock that looks cheap but keeps disappointing.
Still, writing the company off entirely may be premature.
Importantly, vaccines are not CSL's core earnings engine. The bulk of the company's profits come from CSL Behring, its plasma therapies division. This business develops treatments used for rare diseases, immune deficiencies, and bleeding disorders.
Demand in these areas continues to grow steadily, supported by ageing populations, better diagnosis rates, and rising healthcare spending globally.
CSL also holds a leading global position in plasma-derived therapies, giving it significant scale advantages and high barriers to entry. In other words, while one division is facing pressure, the company's core business remains structurally strong.
What do the experts think?
Many analysts still see upside. According to data from TradingView, 12 out of 18 analysts currently rate CSL shares as a buy or strong buy.
The most bullish price target sits at $267.53, implying potential upside of nearly 120% from current levels. Even the lowest target of $152.31 suggests gains of roughly 25%.
Not everyone is convinced, however. Earlier this month, Bell Potter Securities warned CSL was "not out of the woods just yet." The broker maintained a hold rating and cut its 12-month price target from $175 to $155.
That cautious stance reflects the uncertainty still hanging over earnings momentum and vaccine demand.
The bottom line is that CSL shares are no longer priced like a market darling. Investors are now weighing whether the recent collapse has created a rare long-term opportunity or whether more disappointment still lies ahead.
