Three S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares have delivered extraordinary returns over the past 12 months. PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) has surged around 328%, Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) is up roughly 248%, and Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) has climbed about 137%.
What do they have in common? All three are deeply tied to the global push toward electrification. Lithium and rare earths sit at the centre of electric vehicles, battery storage, and clean energy technologies. That structural demand has powered their massive share price gains.
But after such a strong run, the big question is simple: Can the ASX 200 shares keep going?
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PLS Group: Global hard-rock leader
This $20 billion ASX 200 share has been the standout beneficiary of the lithium boom. The company operates one of the world's largest hard-rock lithium operations in Western Australia and benefits directly from demand for battery-grade lithium spodumene.
The long-term outlook remains positive, supported by electric vehicle adoption and energy storage demand. However, lithium prices have been volatile, and earnings are highly sensitive to commodity cycles.
That's reflected in broker sentiment. Morgans Financial recently downgraded PLS shares to a "trim" rating with a $5.40 price target, which sits below its current share price of around $6.37. That suggests limited near-term upside after such a strong rally.
Mineral Resources: Multi-commodity growth story
Mineral Resources offers a different angle on the resources boom. The company operates across iron ore, lithium, and mining services, giving it more diversification than pure-play peers.
The ASX 200 share also benefits from its integrated model, controlling both mining operations and infrastructure. That can help improve margins and operational efficiency over time.
Still, the business is capital-intensive and exposed to commodity price swings, particularly in iron ore and lithium markets.
Despite those risks, Morgans remains more constructive here. The broker has an accumulate rating and recently lifted its 12-month price target from $67 to $71, suggesting no further upside from current levels.
Lynas: Critical rare earths supplier
Lynas Rare Earths sits at the centre of another critical supply chain: rare earths magnets used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and advanced electronics.
As one of the few major rare earths producers outside China, Lynas has benefited from geopolitical concerns around supply security and diversification.
However, rare earths prices can be cyclical, and project expansion comes with execution risk.
UBS Group recently trimmed its price target on the ASX 200 share from $23.90 to $23.65, though this still sits comfortably above the current share price of around $19.93.
Foolish Takeaway
So, where does that leave investors?
These ASX 200 shares have already delivered extraordinary gains, driven by strong thematic tailwinds in electrification and critical minerals. But with valuations stretched and commodity cycles inherently volatile, future returns may be more uneven.
The long-term story remains intact. The short-term question is whether expectations have simply run ahead of fundamentals.
