The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price has been an excellent performer in the last year, rising by close to 50%, as the below chart shows.
After such a strong rise, investors may be wondering where the BHP share price could go next.
It's a good time to consider that question because the ASX mining share recently released its FY26 third-quarter update.
Let's take a look at how the business performed and then what analysts think of the business now.
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Recent production performance
In the three months to 31 March 2026, BHP said it produced 476.8kt, which was down 7% year-over-year. But, the business did upgrade its FY26 group copper production is now expected to be in the upper half of its guidance range of between 1,900kt to 2,000kt.
Iron ore production went up 2% year-over-year to 62.8mt, with BHP's share of Australian iron ore production rising by 1% to 60.9mt.
The company noted that there was 10% lower iron ore production in the third quarter of FY26 than the second quarter of FY26 because of impacts from Tropical Cyclone Mitchell and Tropical Cyclone Narelle that led to a temporary port closure, operational adjustments and higher planned maintenance.
Additionally, BHP revealed that it has concluded iron ore sales contract negotiations with the China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) – a key buyer of iron ore.
Steelmaking coal production declined 3% year-over-year to 3.8mt and energy coal rose 12% year-over-year to 4mt.
Is the BHP share price attractive?
According to CMC Invest, most experts are feeling neutral about the business.
Of 15 recent ratings on the business with in the last three months, there are currently 13 hold ratings and just two buys.
A price target is where analysts think the share price will be in 12 months from the time of the investment call to now.
The average price target of those 15 analysts for BHP shares is $51.61. That implies a possible decline of approximately 8% from where it is at the time of writing, so experts seem to think the BHP share price has risen a little too far.
The highest price target on BHP is $67.80, suggesting a possible rise of around 20% from where it is at the time of writing.
Time will tell whether it's right to be optimistic or pessimistic at the current valuation.
