National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares have slumped in morning trade on Tuesday.
At the time of writing, NAB shares are down 0.8% higher to $39.88 a piece.
The latest decline means that shares are now down 6% for the year-to-date and 11% higher over the year.
The banking giant has been in the spotlight over the past 12 months after ASX bank stocks flew higher in 2025. The uptick in interest came off the back of higher inflation rates and anticipation of more interest rate increases.
So far this year, NAB shares have been pretty volatile. Their value has swung anywhere between $49.10 and the current trading price of $39.88. That's around a $10 difference.
In February, NAB reported stronger-than expected profits in its first quarter FY26 earnings result. The banking giant revealed a 15% hike in its cash earnings and a 6% increase in revenue.
News of a hike in inflation and the Middle East conflict drove the bank's share price even higher in early March. But broad bank sector pressure and concerns about the bank's higher expected impairment charges have seen some investors sell up their shares.
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So, if I invested $5,000 in NAB shares 6 months ago, what are they worth today?
At the time of writing, NAB shares are 10.5% lower than six months ago.
The current share price means that an investor who invested $5,000 in NAB shares six months ago would have $4,475 today.
But any investors who bought the same amount of NAB shares one year ago would now be sitting on a profit. The 11% annual increase means $5,000 would now be worth $5,550.
What's next for NAB shares? Are they a buy, sell or hold?
It looks like the peak has passed for NAB shares.
According to TradingView data, some brokers are still optimistic that we could still see an upside ahead for the bank stock. With two out of 16 analysts ripping an upside of up to 26% to $5.50.
But the majority have a more bearish outlook. Seven analysts have a hold rating and another seven have a sell or strong sell rating.
The average target price is $39.84, which implies a small potential 0.1% downside at the time of writing. But others are much more pessimistic and think the share price could crash up to 25% to $30 a piece over the next 12 months.
