Oil jumps again. Here's what the market is watching closely

Oil climbs toward US$100 as traders react to global developments.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Oil prices moved higher overnight, with both major benchmarks extending recent gains as markets respond to shifting global signals.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is up about 2% to US$93.19 per barrel. Brent crude has climbed roughly 3% to US$98.01 per barrel. Both are now trading near the upper end of their recent ranges.

The move adds to a strong run over the past year. WTI is up roughly 45% over 12 months, while Brent has gained 44% over the same period. Prices have also lifted from levels closer to US$60 per barrel late last year.

Here's what the market is focused on.

Oil spelt out on block cubes with an up and down arrow.

Image source: Getty Images

Geopolitical risk remains front of mind

Recent price action has been closely tied to developments in the Middle East.

Ongoing tensions in the region have kept attention on key oil transit routes, including the Strait of Hormuz. Reports indicate markets are reacting to changing expectations around potential disruptions.

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world's most important oil shipping routes, handling a large share of global exports each day.

At the same time, news headlines around ceasefire discussions and negotiations continue to shift sentiment. Prices have moved in both directions as updates emerge, showing how quickly expectations are being repriced.

Inventory data adds another layer

Alongside geopolitical developments, recent supply data has also supported prices.

Latest figures show US crude inventories fell by 9.13 million barrels last week. That contrasts with expectations for a modest build of around 154,000 barrels.

The drawdown follows a period of inventory increases and points to a tighter near-term supply outlook. Moves in oil have tracked closely with these updates, adding to upward pressure in recent sessions.

Prices remain elevated despite mixed short-term moves

While prices have moved higher overnight, recent performance has been mixed.

WTI is down 3% over the past month, showing how quickly sentiment has shifted. Even so, both WTI and Brent remain well above levels seen earlier this year.

Recent trading data also shows that WTI briefly moved above US$95 per barrel during the latest rally before easing slightly, while Brent has held closer to US$98.

What the latest move reflects

There have been no confirmed large-scale supply disruptions in the latest updates.

Even so, prices remain elevated as markets continue to factor in potential risks and react to incoming data.

That keeps oil highly sensitive to new information, with pricing adjusting quickly as expectations change.

Prices suggest traders are still accounting for disruption risk, even though supply has not been materially affected.

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Share Market News

An old-fashioned panel of judges each holding a card with the number 10
Share Gainers

Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

ASX shares had a near miss this Tuesday.

Read more »

Young businessman lost in depression on stairs.
Broker Notes

Brokers rate these 4 ASX 200 shares as a sell!

Do you have these ASX 200 shares in your portfolio?

Read more »

A young woman raises her hands in joyful celebration as she sits at her computer in a home environment.
52-Week Highs

This ASX tech stock just hit a 52-week high after soaring 35% in a month

Investors have sent this ASX tech share to a yearly high.

Read more »

Blue % sign with white dollar signs.
Share Market News

ASX 200 jumps back into the green as RBA keeps interest rates on hold

ASX 200 investors are favouring their buy buttons following the latest RBA interest rate announcement.

Read more »

A financial expert or broker looks worried as he checks out a graph showing market volatility.
Broker Notes

Buy, hold, sell: WiseTech, Lotus Resources, Ampol shares

Let's check out some new ratings on these ASX shares.

Read more »

A male sharemarket analyst sits at his desk looking intently at his laptop with two other monitors next to him showing stock price movements
Share Market News

Broker names 3 ASX shares to buy now

Let's see why Morgans is bullish on these names this month.

Read more »

Three rockets heading to space
Broker Notes

SpaceX shares rocket 40% in 2 days. How do the experts rate this stock?

SpaceX shares were US$135 apiece in Friday's IPO. They closed overnight at US$192.50.

Read more »

A young woman holds an open book over her head with a round mouthed expression as if to say oops as she looks at her computer screen in a home office setting with a plant on the desk and shelves of books in the background.
Share Fallers

Why Karoon Energy, PLS, South32, and Transurban shares are falling today

These shares are having a poor session on Tuesday. What's going on?

Read more »