4DMedical Ltd (ASX: 4DX) shares have jumped another 8% at the time of writing, with the shares changing hands at $6 a piece.
This uplift means the shares are now 32% higher for the year to date and up an enormous 2,208% over the past 12 months.
The healthcare technology company's shares have enjoyed an incredible run, but now I'm concerned that investors who are chasing the shares higher and higher could be taking a big gamble.
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Why do 4DX shares keep soaring?
4DX is an ASX healthcare technology company that develops imaging software for healthcare providers to analyse airflow through the lungs. It helps identify and treat lung and respiratory diseases ranging from asthma to lung cancer.
The company saw its share price explode in 2025 after its flagship product, CT:VQ, received regulatory approvals. It was quickly implemented and adopted through partnerships and commercial contracts with healthcare organisations.
The company has already signed contracts with hospitals and medical providers across the US. These include Stanford University, the University of Miami, Cleveland Clinic, and UC San Diego Health.
It's this business shift from a research and development business to a globally commercial business that has attracted interest from investors.
Here's why it feels like a gamble
I'm concerned that after such a strong price rally over the past 12 months, the 4DX share price could begin to run away.
While a lot of the price increase is driven by company development and contract wins, it is also being driven by investor expectations and sentiment.
It's worth remembering that 4DX is still in a loss‑making, growth and commercialisation phase, which means the company is not yet a profitable business.
For the half year ended 31st December, 4DMedical reported a revenue of $2.9 million, but an adjusted net loss of $16.2 billion, meaning it is far from making money.
This means it also doesn't pay any dividends to its shareholders.
These types of companies often attract momentum and speculative trading and price increases feed more price increase. Essentially, investor optimism can drive gains.
The problem is that if developments or results don't live up to expectations, the share price can tumble just as quickly.
This isn't to say that could happen. But to assume that it won't, or that it'll continue at the same rate, is a gamble I won't be taking.
