The CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) share price has taken a dive over the last several months. As the chart below shows, it has fallen almost 50% from August 2025. But, experts think there's a chance that the ASX healthcare share could recover a lot of the lost ground.
The global biotech business provides a number of healthcare products, including blood plasma-related treatments and vaccines.
UBS recently released a note that outlined one of the reasons why investors can be excited by the business.
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UBS is positive on the biotech giant
The broker said that there has been a rapid uptake of CSL's Andembry since the launch in mid-2025, with more than 1,000 patients on the therapy. UBS estimates this is around 15% of patients on prophylactic treatment across the major markets where it has been approved.
At a US price of around $400,000, the broker said this early momentum should underpin "strong second-half FY26 sales and extend into FY27".
UBS suggests that its hereditary angioedema (HAE) forecasts may prove conservative, as it has allowed for competitive pressure in its projections and therefore expects CSL's HAE market share to peak in FY27.
The broker is projecting that CSL's market share could rise from around 20% in FY25 to a peak of 27% in FY27. UBS said its cautious stance reflects "gradual switching from incumbent therapies, including Haegarda, and competition from other new therapies, both approved and currently in clinical trials."
UBS believes there's "meaningful upside if Andembry takes more" market share.
The broker said its scenario analysis suggests the FY30 (estimated) earnings could get a 9% potential boost if CSL lifts its market share to 40% of the global HAE market. While ambitious, UBS said that possible outcome is "credible given Andembry's clear advantages in convenience and patient experience".
UBS also noted that CSL's long history with this patient group positions it well to take share from the market leader, Takeda.
Is the CSL share price a buy?
The broker is still bullish on the business, despite the market's pessimism.
UBS currently has a buy rating on the business, with a price target of $235. A price target tells investors where they think the share price will be in a year from the time of the investment call. The broker's price target suggests a possible rise of 66% over the next year.
The broker projects that the business could generate net profit of US$3.4 billion in FY26.
