Amplia Therapeutics Ltd (ASX: ATX) shares certainly had a day to remember on Monday.
When many ASX shares were tumbling with the market, this small-cap stock doubled in value to 23.5 cents.
The catalyst for this was the release of updated data from the single-arm Phase 1b/2 ACCENT trial evaluating narmafotinib plus chemotherapy in 64 metastatic pancreatic cancer patients.
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Is it too late to buy this small-cap ASX stock?
Despite its incredible rise on Monday, Bell Potter believes there is still potential for the pharmaceutical company's shares to rise materially from current levels.
In response to yesterday's big announcement from Amplia Therapeutics, the broker said:
The new data was from pre-planned analysis by independent central reviewers, as opposed to analysis by the site investigators which had been reported up until today. The clear highlight was the classification of four new confirmed complete responders. This takes the total to five confirmed complete responders deemed to have disappearance of all measurable lesions for at least two months. The five confirmed complete responders – i.e. 8% of treated patients (n=5/64) – is a remarkable outcome when comparing to the three historical Phase 3 trials with the same chemo backbone where complete responses were seen in only 1 in ~500 subjects (well below 1%).
Additionally, when comparing to other novel drugs in active development, none we are tracking have reported more than 1-2 complete responders. While caveats related to single-arm, mid-size studies remain relevant, the outcomes reported today provide further compelling evidence that narmafotinib's anti-fibrotic mechanism is allowing chemo to exert greater effect and penetrate tumour tissue more effectively.
Big potential returns remain
According to the note, the broker has retained its speculative buy rating and 42 cents price target on the small-cap ASX stock.
Based on its current share price, this implies potential upside of almost 80% for investors over the next 12 months.
However, given its speculative nature, this would only be suitable for investors with a high tolerance for risk.
Commenting on the small-cap ASX stock, the broker said:
No material changes to our forecasts or valuation following this update. We maintain our BUY (speculative) recommendation. Upcoming catalysts include (1) early updates from the AMPLICITY Phase 1b study in 2H CY26; (2) announcements related to any new clinical studies in combination with kRas inhibitors or in ovarian cancer patients, albeit timing is speculative; and (3) updates on the Phase 2b/3 trial preparations.
