Owning CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares has seen a lot of dividend growth over the last 20 years, which is great for investors willing to be patient for growth.
However, it'd be understandable if some shareholders are worried that dividend growth may stop, as CSL now faces more difficult operating conditions due to competition and country-specific headwinds.
Global biopharmaceutical company CSL has a few different offerings, including plasma-derived products, recombinant proteins and other innovative therapies, vaccines, iron deficiency, nephrology and cardiorenal products. The diversification has not helped the company halt the market's increased pessimism recently.
Let's take a look at what could happen with the dividend for CSL shares in the coming years.
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FY26
Broker UBS said in a recent note that CSL's market share loss has been confirmed, but demand growth is "encouraging".
Global plasma-derived therapy sales increased by just 4% in 2025, much slower than historic growth, which was attributed largely to the US reimbursement cuts. CSL's poor result was "attributed to the loss of key tenders and poor commercial execution, particularly in the large US market."
CSL's new management has promised improvement in 2026 with a clear focus on the high-value US market.
But, there was one sign of positivity, with CSL's vaccine business (Seqirus) seeing a market share rise to around 33%.
The projection from UBS suggests that the ASX healthcare share could deliver an annual dividend per CSL share of US$2.95 in FY26, which would represent a slight increase from the US$2.92 per share payout in FY25.
FY27
Pleasingly for shareholders, dividend growth is expected to accelerate in the 2027 financial year after a small rise in FY26.
UBS projects that CSL could decide to hike its annual payout per share to US$3.10.
FY28
Further dividend growth is expected for long-term shareholders in the 2028 financial year.
Another sizeable dividend increase could happen in FY28, with a forecast that the annual payout per share could rise to US$3.25.
FY29
The 2029 financial year is projected to see ongoing growth in dividend payments.
UBS forecasts that CSL could decide to pay an annual dividend per share of US$3.41.
FY30
The 2030 financial year, the last year of this series of projections, could see owners of CSL shares receive an annual dividend per share of US$3.59.
At the time of writing, this potential payout translates into a future potential dividend yield of 3.7%, which would be a decent yield from CSL, considering its dividend yield has been a lot lower, historically.
UBS currently has a buy rating on CSL, with a price target of $235, suggesting sizeable potential gains over the next year, though time will tell whether that can occur amid what's happening in the wider world this year.
