Forget CBA shares, Bell Potter says this ASX financial stock could deliver a 75% return

The broker sees potential for major upside and a generous return from this stock.

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Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) is undoubtedly one of the highest-quality banks in the world.

But even the best stocks can become too expensive to buy. And that's what most brokers believe has happened with CBA shares.

But don't worry, because there are other ASX financial stocks that could deliver big returns.

A young male ASX investor raises his clenched fists in excitement because of rising ASX share prices today.

Image source: Getty Images

Which ASX financial stock?

Bell Potter thinks that COG Financial Services Ltd (ASX: COG) could be seriously undervalued at current levels.

It is a diversified conglomerate of distribution businesses providing access to credit providers for yellow commercial goods. This is delivered through a nationwide broker network.

In addition, Bell Potter highlights that the company has some balance sheet funded direct originations, with a focus on capturing some of the overflow for non-prime chattel mortgages.

Bell Potter has been looking at monthly automotive data and ahead to the Federal Budget and appears to believe there are positives for this ASX financial stock. It said:

Battery electric vehicle (BEV) deliveries have continued to firm and demonstrate growth, counter to the broader market. Feb'26 penetration reached a record 12.2% and volumes grew +92% YoY, with established brands extending their lead, while smaller players gained relevance. Growth is being driven by contributions from the Sealion 7 (medium SUV), Zeekr 7X (medium SUV), and Atto 2 (small SUV), with around one-in-two electric vehicle sales occurring via the novated leasing channel.

An inaugural report showed two thirds of suppliers outperformed their emissions targets. Commercial costs will crystallise in 2028; brands have a similar window each year to offset and manage the liability. A $61m interim liability was recorded for the 2025 performance period, which penalises high-volume players and light commercial vehicles. Passenger vehicles comprised 71% of volumes, with an average carbon emission of 114g/km. The 141g/km benchmark tightens to 117g/km this year, mounting pressure on Hyundai and Mazda, with current potential penalties of $4m and $25m. More demand stimulus from cleaner vehicles will be required to generate saleable offsets, and supply customer wants, without passing on cost.

It believes this supports its view that the company is positioned for strong earnings growth in the coming years.

Big potential returns

According to the note, Bell Potter has retained its buy rating and $2.30 price target on the ASX financial stock.

Based on its current share price of $1.35, this implies potential upside of 70% for investors over the next 12 months.

In addition, Bell Potter expects a much more generous dividend yield than what CBA shares offer. It is forecasting a 5.3% yield over the 12 months, which boosts the total potential return to 75%.

The broker concludes:

Our earnings and Buy rating is unchanged. We would like to see a strategy for the lending business articulated. Data and contract wins confirm our compound growth of +9%, with upside from acquisitions, realised cost synergies and further M&A potential.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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