ASX gold stocks have been share market winners across the last 12 months.
A combination of record commodity prices and geopolitical uncertainty has led investors to push further and further into the safe-haven asset.
However a new report from Bell Potter released yesterday has provided a less optimistic view on ASX gold stock Pantoro Gold Ltd (ASX: PNR).
Pantoro is a gold producer and exploration company based in Western Australia. The company's flagship operation is the 100%-owned Norseman Gold Project in the state's Eastern Goldfields region.
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Fresh off a 22% crash
Pantoro Gold shares crashed 22% yesterday following its half-year results announcement.
The Motley Fool's Bernd Struben reported yesterday that back in January, management said they expected full-year gold production to be at the lower end of the previously provided production guidance of 100,000 to 110,000 ounces of gold.
However, operations at Norseman were affected by a significant rain event associated with Ex-Tropical Cyclone Mitchell in February 2026.
The event resulted in temporary flooding of multiple underground areas, and interrupted open pit and haulage operations for several days, delaying production scheduled for February until March
As a result, Pantoro has cut its full-year gold production guidance to the range of 86,000 ounces to 92,000 ounces.
Seemingly, investors were not impressed, as the ASX gold stock ended yesterday down 22.5%.
It remains up approximately 53% over the last 12 months.
What did Bell Potter have to say?
Following Tuesday's close, Bell Potter released updated guidance on the ASX gold stock.
The broker said the 1HFY26 result was in-line/slightly ahead of its forecasts but a miss vs consensus.
The broker has maintained a hold recommendation on Pantoro Gold shares, but cut its price target to $4.20 (previously $6.05).
The latest guidance is a 15% cut (midpoint basis) to prior FY26 guidance of 100- 110koz.
We have updated our forecasts for a weak March quarter (21koz) and an improved June quarter (24koz) for FY26 production of 87koz. Given the contractor transition in the June quarter, we still see potential downside to this forecast.
The guidance downgrade also brings into question the medium-term production target of ~200kozpa (FY27-FY28). We had previously made more conservative assumptions (120-130kozpa) but we now bring these back to ~110kozpa.
Bell Potter said the company still offers unhedged gold production exposure and potential production growth, but it expects the market to apply a greater risk discount to this outlook.
