Buy this ASX 200 share benefiting from 'cyclical tailwinds': Top broker

A return of almost 40% could be on offer with this stock according to the broker.

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If you are looking to make a new addition or two to your portfolio this week, then it could be worth listening to what Bell Potter is saying.

That's because the broker has just put a buy rating on one ASX 200 share.

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Which ASX 200 share?

The company that Bell Potter is bullish on is Orica Ltd (ASX: ORI).

It is a leading solution provider to the global mining and infrastructure markets. Its solutions include the manufacture and supply of explosives, blasting systems, and speciality mining chemicals. In addition, it offers the provision of orebody intelligence, geotechnical, and structural monitoring products and services.

Bell Potter highlights that the ASX 200 share released a business update this week, which was largely in line with expectations. It said:

ORI has provided a 1H FY26 business update, outlining positive group momentum continuing into FY26TD, with 1H FY26 group uEBIT expected to be "slightly higher" than the PcP (BPe +3.0%). Key points: Blasting Solutions: uEBIT to be slightly below the PcP (BPe -1.3%), due to a higher AUD:USD and lower Indonesian coal production quotas. These headwinds were partially offset by strong demand for premium products and advanced blasting technologies, continued commercial discipline and robust network performance.

Digital Solutions: uEBIT is forecast to increase by ~20% vs the PcP (BPe +24.0%), underpinned by increasing adoption of digital offerings and recurring revenue growth, strong metals exploration activity and increased cross-selling across the portfolio. Speciality Mining Chemicals: uEBIT is anticipated to lift ~15% vs the PcP (BPe +27.2%), supported by strong demand for sodium cyanide from gold customers

Should you invest?

In response to the update, Bell Potter has retained its buy rating and $28.50 price target on the ASX 200 share.

Based on its current share price of $20.92, this implies potential upside of 36% for investors over the next 12 months.

In addition, a 3.1% dividend yield is expected in 2026, which takes the total potential return to over 39%.

Bell Potter likes the company due to its belief that it is well-placed to benefit from cyclical tailwinds across its target markets. The broker explains:

ORI is well positioned to capitalise on improving short-to-medium term cyclical tailwinds across mining production, exploration and gold processing markets. Notwithstanding these tailwinds, we express caution regarding input cost and supply.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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