Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares are 0.81% higher in Thursday lunchtime trade. At the time of writing, the shares are changing hands at $173.30 a piece.
After dropping to a 10-month low of $147.22 on the 21st of January, the CBA share price has surged 17.68%.
The uplift means the banking giant's shares are now 7.57% higher for the year to date and 10.77% higher over the year.
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CBA shares stage a turnaround
The sharp price hike is surprising given that the banking giant suffered overall weakness throughout the final quarter of 2025 (along with the majority of the banking sector), with share price declines across the board.
Sombre sentiment meant many investors weren't expecting any type of recovery this year. In fact, many expected a significant share price crash.
But then the major bank released its FY26 half-year update, and it blew expectations out of the water.
What did CBA report?
In mid-February, the company posted a 6% increase in cash net profit and a 5% increase in net profit after tax. It also lifted its interim dividend by 4% to $2.35 per share.
This strong result was supported by lending and deposit volume growth in CBA's core businesses. This was partly offset by lower margins and higher operating expenses, primarily due to inflation and the company's investment in technology.
At the time of the announcement, CBA's CEO, Matt Comyn, said that economic growth strengthened during the half, "driven by increases in consumer demand and rising investment in AI and energy infrastructure".
The result came in far ahead of investors' and analysts' expectations, and many moved quickly to snap up the stock. It sent the share price flying 13% in just over a week.
What's next for CBA shares?
CBA shares have cooled a little since peaking at an 8-month high shortly following the results announcement. At the time of writing, the share price is down 3.51% from its mid-February level.
And unfortunately, it looks like analysts are tipping for the slide to continue.
TradingView data shows that 14 out of 16 analysts have a sell or strong sell rating on CBA shares. One has a hold rating, and another has revised their stance to a strong buy.
The average target price is $131.41, which implies a 24.22% downside at the time of writing. Although some think the shares could sink 10.3% to $155.59, and others think CBA shares could crash a whopping 48.13% to just $90 a piece.
