DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO) shares closed 6.22% lower at $3.62 a piece at the close of the ASX on Tuesday afternoon. For the year-to-date, the drone operator's shares are 8.71% higher.
DroneShield was the best performer in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) and one of the fastest-growing stocks on the planet in 2025.
But the stock has been firmly in the spotlight over the past six months after it suffered a brutal sell-off late last year amid concerns about a stretched valuation amid a sector-wide downturn.
Droneshield faced more headwinds after its late-January fourth-quarter update disappointed investors. The company's update revealed that Cash receipts remained modest, contract momentum stalled, and revenue growth showed little sign of improvement.
Thankfully, news of six new standalone contracts last week helped the counter-drone operator claw back some losses. The contracts are valued at $21.7 million and are via an in-country reseller to a Western military end customer.
It's fair to say it's been a white-knuckle ride for investors of DroneShield shares over the past 12 months.
Image source: Getty Images
So, if I bought $10,000 worth of DroneShield shares 12 months ago, what are they worth now?
While DroneShield shares have been choppy over the past 6 months, they're significantly higher than a year ago.
At the time of writing, the stock is still a huge 364% higher than this time last year.
That share price increase means that an investor who bought $10,000 worth of DroneShield shares 12 months ago would now have a whopping $36,410.
And if an investor bought $10,000 of the stock five years ago, DroneShield's 2,313.33% five-year increase means that would be worth $231,333 today.
Can we expect the same level of returns going forward?
While analysts are very bullish about the outlook for DroneShield shares, with a strong buy consensus according to TradingView data, it doesn't look like the annual increase will continue at the same pace.
The maximum target price for DroneShield shares over the next 12 months is $5.00 a piece. At the time of writing, that implies a 38% upside ahead for investors.
A return as high as 38% is a fantastic upside. And as as tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, putting pressure on military spending, we could see demand for DroneShield's counter-drone detection and mitigation technology pick up pace. But investors looking for the 364% uplift we've had over the past 12 months have probably missed the boat.
