South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) and Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares have both been enjoying tailwinds over the past months from strong global commodity prices.
Although iron ore prices dipped back below US$100 per tonne last week, currently at around US$96 per tonne, the industrial metal has held up far better than most analysts have been predicting.
And metals including copper and aluminium have also been trading at lofty levels.
Atop the two fully franked dividends both S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining stocks paid over the past 12 months, this has also helped them deliver solid share price performance.
As at Tuesday's close, Fortescue shares have gained 9.7% in a year. And the South32 share price has surged 22.8% over this time.
Which brings us back to our headline question…
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Should you buy South32 and Fortescue shares today?
Shaw and Partners' Jed Richards recently analysed the outlook for South32 and Fortescue shares (courtesy of The Bull).
Commenting on South32 shares, Richards said, "The miner is benefiting from strength across several of its key commodity markets, particularly aluminium, alumina, manganese and nickel.
He added:
Increasing global investment in energy transition infrastructure continues to support demand for these metals, while tighter supplies in aluminium and manganese assists in keeping prices elevated. Nickel markets remain volatile, but long-term demand linked to battery production provides an underlying support theme.
But with potential future volatility in mind, Richards issued a hold recommendation on South32 shares. He concluded:
Despite these positive conditions, commodity markets can shift quickly, and the next phase of the cycle will depend heavily on global industrial activity and continuing momentum in electrification. For now, the outlook remains encouraging, but given the inherent volatility across these commodities, I believe it's prudent to hold existing positions rather than add further exposure until we see increasing clarity in pricing trends and broader macroeconomic conditions.
Turning to Fortescue shares, Richards noted, "The miner continues to benefit from iron ore prices, which are holding up better than many expected."
He said, "The company's low-cost position and large-scale operations support strong profitability. But similar to my commentary on S32, the commodities and iron ore markets are cyclical."
However, Richards also issued a hold recommendation for Fortescue shares. He concluded:
Movements in iron ore prices are influenced by global demand and particularly China's steel production. For that reason, I'm comfortable maintaining current exposure without leaning in further just yet.
The buy case for South32 shares
MPC Markets Jonathan Tacadena has a more optimistic outlook on South32 shares.
"Mining operations include aluminium, copper, zinc, lead, manganese and silver," he said (quoted by The Bull).
Tacadena noted:
The company delivered a solid first half year result in fiscal year 2026, with earnings largely in line with expectations, a better-than-expected dividend and an expanded share buy-back, which is usually a good sign.
Summarising his buy recommendation on South32, Tacadena said
Extending the Cannington mine life adds value amid upside potential at Sierra Gorda and Hermosa. S32 has a quality portfolio with improving margins. We believe the company is a solid long-term buy, particularly on any temporary dips.
South32 shares closed yesterday trading for $4.50 each.
Fortescue shares closed the day at $20.28.
