The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) share James Hardie Industries plc (ASX: JHX) has seen enormous volatility over the last 12 months, as the chart below shows. Experts don't think the business has finished rising.
The global building products business lost a lot of shareholder confidence last year, but its results are winning back investors bit by bit.
James Hardie recently announced its quarterly result for the three months to 31 December 2026. Let's remind ourselves what the business revealed.
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Earnings recap of the ASX 200 share
In the quarterly result, the ASX 200 share revealed that net sales rose by 30% to $1.24 billion. Adjusted operating profit (EBITDA) rose 26% to $329.9 million, operating income (operating profit) declined 15% to $176.2 million, and net profit declined 52% to $68.7 million.
Broker UBS said that the EBITDA was 7% ahead of analyst expectations and the mid-point of guidance, though there is still weakness in some individual divisions. The company said that market conditions remain "challenged".
The business is still guiding that the FY26 fourth quarter EBITDA will be between $347 million to $378 million, compared to the current UBS estimate of $385 million.
Additionally, FY26 EBITDA guidance was raised to between $1.23 billion to $1.26 billion, compared to UBS' estimate of $1.27 billion.
Is the James Hardie share price a buy?
UBS explained that it sees both positive green shoots and challenges for the ASX 200 share. The broker said:
JHX did not provide formal guidance on FY27, but said it expects to return to organic growth in Siding & Trim, with a renewed emphasis on delivering fiber cement siding material conversion and associated PDG. In our view, the outlook for FY27 and the path to a recovery in US housing activity is still challenged by (1) persistently low consumer confidence, (2) ongoing housing affordability challenges, and (3) elevated housing inventory in key homebuilding states.
For FY27, we forecast EBITDA growth of 18% to $1.496bn, which assumes siding volumes +2% (R&R/SF broadly flat and PDG +2%) with ASP +2%, cost and commercial synergies of around $30mn each and a full-year contribution from AZEK.
Longer term, we expect JHX to benefit from the structural underbuild of US housing and the identified material conversion opportunities in both siding and decking. However, in the short term, we also expect the stock to track broader sentiment on the US housing cycle, where we note visibility over the shape of any recovery in activity is dependent on improving consumer confidence and greater support from lower mortgage rates.
UBS has a neutral rating on the business with a price target of $41, which is a possible rise of around 15%, if the broker turns out to be correct.
The broker forecasts the business could generate US$606 million of net profit in FY26, US$698 million in FY27 and US$915 million in FY28. Rising profit is usually a very useful tailwind for sending the share price of a business higher.
