Owning ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares has historically been a rewarding experience in terms of passive income and the dividend yield. Investors may be wondering if that record will continue in the coming years.
The ASX bank share impressed the market with its FY26 first quarter update, which included cash net profit of 17% compared to the quarterly average of the second half of FY25, excluding significant items. Operating expenses declined by 8%, while operating revenue grew 1%.
Including significant items, the cash net profit jumped an impressive 75%, with operating expenses lower by 21%.
Net loans and advances grew to $837 billion at December 2025, up 1% from September 2025 and up just 0.3% from December 2024.
After taking those numbers into account, analysts have revealed where they think the dividend yield is headed for owners of ANZ shares.
Image source: Getty Images
FY26
UBS noted that cash profit and costs were better than analysts were expecting, both from UBS and other market analysts. The credit environment is still "very benign"
The broker said that this is "clearly a good start to FY26", along with operational deposit growth of 5% year-over-year, as well as a solid net interest margin (NIM).
UBS also noted some negatives:
…however, more immediately NZ and US rate cuts, relevant for the Institutional division, could be a headwind. Things we would call out that could be negatives are NII [net interest income] grew by only 0.4%, and lending only grew 1% QoQ or 0.3% including Institutional. Revenue growth (+3.0%) supported by Non-II [non-interest income] and markets income in this result. Key to ANZ achieving its targets is the ability of the group to hold onto revenue as it goes through this period of restructuring and reset.
Based on UBS' forecasts, owners of ANZ shares could see a dividend yield (excluding franking credits) of 4.2%.
FY27
In the 2027 financial year, UBS is projecting a similar payout from ANZ, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.2% (excluding franking credits).
FY28
The ASX bank share's payout is expected to jump in the 2028 financial year. UBS projects that owners of ANZ shares could receive a dividend yield of 4.5%, excluding franking credits.
FY29
The ANZ dividend per share could rise again in the 2029 financial year. This could mean the FY29 dividend yield for shareholders is 4.6%, excluding franking credits.
FY30
In the last year of this series of projections, ANZ is forecast by UBS to increase its payout again to a dividend yield of 4.7%, excluding franking credits.
UBS explained its negative view on the business:
We remain Sell-rated on ANZ with a price target of $36.5/share (was $35/share), as we think the stock has run ahead of fundamentals, with a particularly strong positive price reaction to this 1Q26 earnings update (~+10%). We remain cautious on ANZ's strategy to reset profitability. ANZ is trading at 15.8x P/E (2-years forward)…
