Why this surging ASX 300 gold stock is forecast to keep on giving

A leading broker forecasts more outperformance from this rocketing ASX gold stock.

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S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) gold stock Black Cat Syndicate Ltd (ASX: BC8) enjoyed another strong run on Wednesday.

Black Cat shares closed the day up 4.23%, changing hands for $1.48 apiece.

For some context, the ASX 300 gained 0.75% yesterday.

Atop from a rebound in the gold price to US$5,064 per ounce on Wednesday, the ASX 300 gold stock grabbed investor interest after announcing it had completed the acquisition of 90 square kilometres of tenements adjacent to its 1.2 million tonne per annum (mtpa) Lakewood processing facility.

Lakewood is part of Black Cat's Kal East Gold Operation, located in Western Australia.

Commenting on that acquisition, Black Cat managing director Gareth Solly said, "The acquisition ticks numerous boxes including providing longer-term TSF [tailings storage facilities] capacity and potential additional water sources."

Solly added that the miner's Lakewood 1.5 mtpa expansion study "is well underway". Black Cat expects the outcomes of the expansion study in the March 2026 quarter.

"Consequently, we look forward to ongoing production growth from Kal East as part of our More Gold Sooner strategy," Solly said.

With the gold price having surged 80% in a year, and investors eyeing the gold miner's growth potential, the Black Cat share price has rocketed 110% over the past 12 months.

And according to the analysts at Moelis Australia, the gold miner is well-placed to deliver more share price growth.

ASX 300 gold stock striking out on its own

Moelis noted that Black Cat is in the final stages of extricating itself from a series of historic joint venture agreements, freeing the miner up to operate independently.

According to Moelis:

BC8 has two operations. One of them (Paulsen's) is gaining momentum after its restart, while Kal East continues to 'tidy up' numerous legacy commercial agreements for mining in a JV and toll-treatment of both others' ore at its mill as well as its own ore at another facility.

Sound confusing?

What is important is that this structure is winding up, with progress towards wholly owned ore treatment on track thanks to the development of the Fingals and Majestic mines.

The broker said that the ASX 300 gold stock is unhedged, offering it unfettered exposure to the booming gold price. Black Cat also managed to hold its cash position in the December quarter while spending on its growth programs. The miner held $91 million in cash, bullion, and listed investments as at 31 December.

As for those pesky legacy commercial agreements, which are no longer part of Black Cat's strategy going forward, Moelis said, "The March quarter should see the conclusion of the bulk of these agreements as the company rapidly approaches a more conventional structure where it mines its own ore and treats it through its own facilities."

And patient investors should see the ASX 300 gold stock boost revenue without a material uptick in costs.

According to the broker:

The revenue line will grow as more of the gold it produces translates into revenue/receipts, while running costs remain broadly flat compared to activities today. This, along with exploration potential across the portfolio, should provide both momentum and catalysts for those seeking gold exposure who are willing to look into FY27 and beyond.

Connecting the dots, Moelis has a $1.80 price target on the ASX 300 gold stock.

That's some 22% above Wednesday's closing price.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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