BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are down 1.18% to $51.78 at the time of writing on early Thursday morning. It means the shares are now 13.18% higher for the year to date and up 29.21% over the year.
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So if I bought $5,000 of BHP shares 5 years ago, what would it be worth now?
The miner's shares are now trading 32.95% above where they were this time five years ago. This means that $5,000 invested back then would be worth a total of $6,647.50 today.
What happened to BHP shares this year?
The mining giant took the crown as the biggest stock on the ASX in January. BHP shares closed 2025 at $45.49 per share, but jumped 11.2% over the first month of the year to close January at $50.57. It was also one of the most-traded shares on the ASX.
The increase was mostly fuelled by the miner's latest half-year results. It revealed it had achieved record copper and iron production for the half-year ending 31 December 2025. Its iron ore production increased 2% to 134 million tonnes, with its Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) operations achieving record high shipments.
Copper production was steady at 984,000 tonnes, but the miner lifted its full year FY26 copper guidance to 1,900kt to 2,000 kt (up from guidance of 1,800kt to 2,000 kt previously).
Copper prices rose 32% to US$5.28/lb and iron ore prices were up 4% to US$84.71/wmt during the same period.
Investors were clearly pleased with the result, with many scrambling to get their hands on BHP shares.
What's ahead for 2026?
The miner said it is focused on growing its copper and iron ore production in 2026, while also maintaining disciplined cost control. Major projects like Jansen Stage 1 are progressing, and further investments support BHP's plans to increase copper output to 2 million tonnes within the next decade.
But, analyst sentiment is mixed on whether the miner can deliver. TradingView data shows that most (10 out of 18) analysts have a hold rating on BHP shares. Another two have a sell or strong sell rating and six have a buy or strong buy rating.
The target price is also varied. Some expect the shares to climb to $56.56 a piece over the next 12 months. This implies a potential 9.26% upside ahead, at the time of writing. Whereas others think there is potential for the shares to drop 27.36% to just $37.60 a piece by this time next year.
