PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) shares have been on a tear over the past 12 months.
During this time, the lithium giant's shares have rallied over 120%.
But that is barely even half of the story. At one stage last year, its shares were as low as $1.07.
On Wednesday, they closed the session at $4.87, which means a gain of over 350% from bottom to top.
Is it too late to buy PLS shares? Let's see what analysts at Bell Potter are saying about the lithium miner.
Image source: Getty Images
What is the broker saying?
Bell Potter has been looking ahead to the company's upcoming update and expects a solid quarter.
While production is expected to be down slightly quarter on quarter, the broker believes that higher lithium prices will drive a strong increase in revenue. It said:
We expect December 2025 quarterly production of around 214kt at unit costs of A$579/t FOB, marginally below the September 2025 quarter (225kt at A$540/t FOB) with potential weather impacts and higher levels of contact ore processed.
Quarterly revenue will improve (BP est. $323m; September 2025 quarter $251m), supported by higher realised prices. PLS are guiding to FY26 SC production of 820-870kt at unit costs A$560-600/t FOB and capex of A$300-330m. Construction of the mid-stream demonstration plant is complete; we expect the PLS (55%) – Calix (45%; CXL, not rated) JV will provide an update on commissioning and ramp-up timing.
Are PLS shares a buy, hold, or sell?
According to the note, the broker has upgraded PLS shares to a hold rating (from sell) with an increased price target of $4.55 (from $2.65). This implies potential downside of 6.5% from current levels.
Commenting on its hold recommendation, Bell Potter said:
EPS changes as a result of these upgrades are: FY26 now 12.3cps (previously 1.2cps); FY27 now 18.8cps (previously 2.5cps); and FY28 now 18.7cps (previously 4.5cps). Our PLS valuation is now $4.55/sh (previously $2.65/sh).
We upgrade our recommendation to Hold, reflecting improving lithium market fundamentals that will materially strengthen PLS' earnings and cash flow generation. PLS is a low-cost producer with around 250ktpa of idled spodumene concentrate capacity that can be rapidly reactivated as conditions improve. Its Colina Project provides low-cost growth optionality in a supportive mining jurisdiction in Brazil.
In light of this, investors may want to wait for a meaningful pullback in the PLS share price before considering a position in the lithium miner.
