Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) shares climbed 4.15% higher to $15.68 at the time of writing on Wednesday. The latest uptick means the shares have jumped 26.41% already in the first couple of weeks of 2026.
The shares are now 117.41% higher than this time last year but still 27.59% below their all-time high of $21.64 in mid-October last year.
Shares in the miner rode the wave of booming demand for rare earths materials throughout 2025. Demand peaked in mid-October when US President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese struck a deal to bolster rare earths and critical mineral supplies and reduce dependence on China's exports.
Shortly later, Lynas revealed plans to establish a new Heavy Rare Earths separation facility in Malaysia to meet strong market demand.
Shortly later, Trump and China's president Xi Jinping reached a trade framework agreement to ease tariffs and postpone export controls for a year. And it took the wind out of Lynas' share price throughout the final months of 2025.
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What's ahead for Lynas in 2026?
Lynas is expected to hike its production this year, which, combined with higher pricing for Neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr), could drive the company's revenue skywards in 2026.
Broker forecasts suggest Lynas' revenue could double from approximately $557 million in FY25 to $1.1 billion in FY26. Its NdPr production is expected to jump 35% to around 8,800 tonnes, and prices are forecast to increase around 50%.
NdPr is used in magnets for electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, and applications in the defence technology. Demand for the materials is expected to outpace supply in 2026 as countries invest heavily into their defence sector and green technologies take off.
Are Lynas shares a buy, hold or sell this year?
While the stock finished 2025 on a low, the share price has rallied since the ASX opened in 2026.
But analysts are still divided about where they think the share price will travel from here. Data shows that the split between analysts with a strong buy, hold, and sell rating is nearly equal.
The average target price, however, is $15.52. At the time of writing, this implies a potential 0.13% upside ahead for investors. Although some think the shares could climb as high as $29.50 over the next 12 months. If that were to happen it would represent a huge 90.50% upside, at the time of writing.
The issue is that the Lynas share price is closely tied to commodity price movements. Therefore it is likely to remain volatile in the near future.
The team at Macquarie are optimistic about Lynas shares and expect more gains out of the rare earth producer. The broker has a $17 target price on the shares. The broker expects the rare earths market to remain tight in 2026.
