The CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) share price has tested investor patience like few other blue chips in recent memory. After falling almost 40% during 2025, CSL shares are now trading around the $170 mark. That is a level not seen for many years for one of Australia's most consistent long-term performers.
With 2026 approaching, investors are asking a simple question. Is there more downside ahead, or has most of the bad news already been priced in?
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Why CSL shares struggled so badly in 2025
CSL's weak share price performance was not caused by a single event. Instead, it was the result of several issues compounding over time.
Profit guidance fell short of expectations, costs stayed higher than investors wanted, and the recovery in plasma collections took longer than hoped. Currency movements also weighed on earnings, adding to the pressure on the share price.
The company also announced a $500 million cost-cutting plan. While sensible, some investors took it as a sign that costs had grown too high. Confidence continued to slip, and CSL moved from market favourite to one of the most sold large-cap stocks on the ASX.
What the market may be missing
Despite the share price slump, CSL's core businesses remain intact. Plasma collection volumes have been improving, Seqirus continues to deliver steady vaccine earnings, and CSL Vifor is beginning to settle after a difficult integration phase.
Just as importantly, CSL is moving out of a heavy investment cycle. As collection efficiency improves and cost controls tighten, operating leverage should begin to re-emerge.
Several brokers think the market has been too hard on CSL. While some, including Macquarie, have lowered their price targets and taken a more neutral view, most still see value well above the current share price. Many analysts believe CSL shares could be worth between about $260 and $300.
Could CSL shares really crash again?
For CSL shares to fall sharply again, fundamentals would likely need to weaken further. Issues with plasma volumes, margins, or execution could all cause renewed pressure.
That said, expectations are much lower than they were a year ago. The valuation has come back, confidence is low, and it wouldn't take much good news to support the share price.
Foolish takeaway
After a brutal year, much of the bad news appears to be reflected in the current CSL share price.
While short-term volatility may persist, it is becoming harder to argue CSL looks expensive at these levels. Whether 2026 delivers a rebound will depend on management executing on its plans.
For now, the risk profile appears far more evenly balanced, with long-term upside becoming clearer.
