Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares ended 3.23% lower at the close of the ASX on Friday afternoon, at $21.88 a piece. The latest decline has done little to dent the stock's strong gains over the past 6 months though. At the time of writing the shares are 50.48% higher than 6 months ago, while year-on-year the shares are 18.91% higher.
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What happened to Fortescue and its shares in 2025?
Over the past 6 months, the iron ore mining giant's shares have been boosted by resilience of global iron ore prices. Iron Ore rose to 106.92 USD/T on December 19, 2025, up 0.02% from the previous day. Over the past month, Iron Ore's price has risen 2.57%, and is up 2.97% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity.
The company's shares were also boosted by its impressive September quarter results. In late October, the miner reported that it had increased its total iron ore shipments to 49.7Mt in Q1 FY26, up 4% year-on-year to a new record level.
Fortescue also said that for FY26, it is sticking to its guidance of 195–205Mt in total shipments, and plans to keep costs tight. The company is also investing in metals and energy projects, with capex guidance of up to US$4 billion for metals and around US$300 million for energy.
On Monday last week, investors started snapping up the shares again after the company announced it had entered into a binding agreement to acquire Alta Copper Corp (TSX: ATCU).
Fortescue said it has agreed to acquire the remaining 64% of Alta Copper's issued and outstanding common shares that it does not already own through a Canadian Plan of Arrangement. Alta Copper shareholders will receive cash consideration of C$1.40 per share, which represents a significant premium of 50% to the 30-day volume weighted average price (VWAP). It implies a total equity value for Alta Copper of C$139 million (A$152 million).
Directors of Alta Copper who are entitled to vote have unanimously recommended to shareholders that they vote in favour of the transaction.
What's next for the mining stock?
I'm concerned that as a miner which is so reliant on the iron ore industry, any pull-pack in iron ore prices over the next 12 months could be devastating for the business. This is particularly relevant against the backdrop of Fortescue's latest iron ore price forecast for 2026.
The bank's analysts have cautioned that a large forecast increase in global iron ore supplies in 2026, coupled with material reductions in Chinese steel production, could trigger a 20% fall in the iron ore price to around US$83 per tonne.
TradingView data shows the majority have a hold rating (9 out of 15) on Fortescue shares. Another 5 have a sell or strong sell rating. The average target price for the shares is $19.64, although some think it could fall as low as $16.37 over the next 12 months. This implies a potential downside as large as 25.16%, at the time of writing.
