2025 could be the year investors learned patience the hard way, with these 2 bruised ASX 200 stocks proving stern teachers.
CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) and James Hardie Industries Plc (ASX: JHX) have been belted in the past 12 months. The healthcare giant lost 37% in market value and the world's leading producer of fibre cement building products scored even worse at 43%.
For investors with patience — and a strong stomach — these 2 heavyweight ASX 200 stocks may be setting up for redemption in 2026.
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CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)
Let's start with CSL. The $87 billion healthcare company has endured a bruising year, with its share price sliding sharply as investors fretted over plasma collection costs, slower margin recovery and uneven vaccine demand.
For a company long treated as a "buy it and forget it" stock, the fall from grace has been jarring. But the ASX 200 stock hasn't forgotten how to grow. Plasma volumes are improving, cost pressures are easing and management remains confident margins can normalise over time.
CSL still dominates global plasma therapies, owns enviable intellectual property and generates rivers of cash. If execution improves even modestly, 2026 doesn't need to be heroic. It just needs things to be less bad for sentiment to turn.
Of course, risks remain. CSL must prove margin recovery isn't just a slide deck promise. However, most analysts are bullish on the healthcare share. The average 12-month price target is $235, which implies a 35% upside.
James Hardie Industries Plc (ASX: JHX)
Then there's James Hardie, the poster child for cyclical pain. Shares have been smashed as higher interest rates slowed US housing activity, earnings forecasts were trimmed and the recent acquisition of the Us business Azek was viewed as an expensive one.
Investors hate uncertainty, and the $18 billion building materials business has had plenty of it.
Yet writing off James Hardie has rarely been a winning long-term strategy. The ASX 200 stock remains deeply leveraged to the US housing cycle, and history suggests that cycle eventually turns.
Add in James Hardie's dominant market position in fibre cement, strong pricing power and long-term structural growth from renovation and rebuilding, and the 2026 outlook starts to look a lot less bleak.
TradingView data shows that most analysts recommend a hold or (strong) buy on James Hardie. Some expect the ASX 200 stock to climb as high as $45.11, which implies a 48% upside at the time of writing.
However, the average share price target for the next 12 months is $36.28. That still suggests a possible gain of almost 36%.
